BNP Paribas expects emerging markets to remain supported in 2026. The bank says this is due to strong global spending on artificial intelligence (AI) infrastructure and related supply chains. It forecasts average emerging market growth of 4.1%, down from 4.3%. The bank says the main support today comes from demand created by building data centres and other physical AI infrastructure. It expects the benefits to flow mostly through trade, not through near-term productivity gains. It also notes that emerging economies are less prepared than advanced economies to benefit from AI adoption and broad diffusion. The report cites an average AIPI index of 0.72 for G7 countries. The report says some emerging markets are better positioned within AI supply chains. It highlights producers of critical metals, electricity, and advanced semiconductors. It adds that this advantage could strengthen in the near term if AI infrastructure investment continues. We view the ongoing build-out of AI infrastructure as the main support for emerging markets right now. This growth is coming from global demand for the physical inputs to AI, not from domestic productivity gains. As a result, countries that export electronics, energy, and key raw materials are in a strong position. For traders, this points to potential long positions in the currencies of key supply-chain countries. Examples include the Chilean Peso (copper exposure) and the Taiwanese Dollar (semiconductor exposure). Another approach is call options on emerging market indices with heavy exposure to technology and materials. These trades aim to benefit from continued investment into AI hardware. Recent data supports this view. South Korea’s chip exports for January 2026 rose 35% year over year, extending a trend seen through much of 2025. This demand is closely tied to the global construction and upgrading of data centres. It suggests the investment cycle that started two years ago has not yet peaked. The same demand shows up in commodity markets. Copper prices have recently moved above $10,500 per tonne, reflecting strong need for wiring and power-grid upgrades linked to data centres. Derivative trades on copper futures offer a direct way to gain exposure to this infrastructure cycle. The trend is also visible in energy markets, especially in Southeast Asian hubs such as Malaysia. Reports indicate energy use in key industrial zones—where several new data centres started operating in 2025—is up 12% from early last year. This points to opportunities in energy-related assets in countries attracting AI investment. However, the growth rate may start to slow. With that in mind, traders can stay constructive while using defined-risk strategies, such as bull call spreads on relevant indices or stocks. This keeps upside exposure while limiting risk if the investment boom cools faster than expected.

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