BP expects global oil demand to rise by about 1% in both 2025 and 2026. This prediction indicates that the oil market is moving towards a more balanced state, where demand growth matches the supply growth from non-OPEC producers. The slight increase in non-OPEC production will not fully meet the growing demand. This means that OPEC+ is likely to have more control over oil prices soon.

OPEC+ Influence on Oil Prices

With non-OPEC supply growth stabilizing, OPEC+ could have a greater impact on market prices. If global demand continues to rise, this environment may support higher oil prices. BP’s analysis suggests stability with no major unexpected demand increases. Historically, BP has favored rising oil prices, which aligns with recent comments from the CEO. The oil market appears to be rebalancing, as supply growth outside the leading producer group is leveling off. This shift allows OPEC+ to take charge of pricing again. We should prepare for a more controlled market in the coming weeks. The forecast of 1% demand growth for this year and next appears strong, backed by recent data. The International Energy Agency’s July 2025 report showed that second-quarter demand exceeded expectations, mainly due to a rebound in Asian travel. This stable demand sets a solid floor for prices.

Strategic Market Approaches

On the supply side, we have seen signs of a plateau for several months. The U.S. Energy Information Administration reported a slowdown in growth from the Permian Basin for the second consecutive quarter of 2025. With less new oil coming from outside OPEC+, the group’s production choices hold more significance. Given this outlook, strategies that benefit from stable or rising prices could be valuable. Buying call options on crude futures may capture potential gains if OPEC+ restricts supply further. Selling out-of-the-money put options is another way to profit, betting that OPEC+ will protect certain price levels. A similar strategy worked well for the producer group not long ago. Looking back to 2021-2022, their disciplined supply management was a crucial factor in driving oil prices up significantly. The current situation feels similar to that period. It’s important to note that this outlook matches the interests of major producers who gain from higher prices. While the overall trend looks positive, we can expect short-term volatility to increase around OPEC+ meetings, such as the one in July 2025 that confirmed current cuts. This creates opportunities for traders who focus on volatility, not just price direction. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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