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    Brent crude oil prices remain stable between USD 60 and 65 as influencing factors balance out.

    by VT Markets
    /
    Dec 5, 2025
    Since early October, Brent crude oil prices have mostly stayed between USD 60 and 65. This week, prices are likely to remain stable as various factors balance each other. China’s crude oil imports play a big role, with recent data showing strong demand. This year, China’s oil demand is expected to exceed last year’s by 100,000 barrels daily. In the first ten months, imports averaged 400,000 barrels per day more than last year. Imports are expected to remain high in November as China builds its strategic reserves. New energy agency forecasts this week could apply pressure on prices, as they suggest a possible oversupply of oil next year. Last month, the EIA increased its price outlook due to Russian sanctions and China’s increased stockpiling. While rising production and higher prices led to a slight increase in U.S. production forecasts, further changes remain uncertain. Brent crude oil is likely to stay in a tight range of $85 to $90 per barrel, similar to prices in much of the fourth quarter of 2025. Factors pushing prices up and those pushing them down are balancing almost perfectly. For now, the key numbers to watch will be China’s crude import data for November. We expect China’s imports to remain strong, which should help keep prices stable in the near term. November’s customs data shows imports steady at over 11.4 million barrels per day, with a significant portion likely going into reserves. High diesel crack spreads, around $28 a barrel, also encourage Chinese refiners to process more crude. However, upcoming reports from the IEA and EIA may dampen market sentiment for next year. In 2024, supply was a constant worry, but non-OPEC+ production has risen significantly. These new reports will likely point to oversupply in 2026, limiting significant price increases. Rapid growth in U.S. production is a major factor in this oversupply scenario. The EIA’s latest report indicates U.S. output has reached a record 13.5 million barrels per day. This steady growth suggests that any price spikes are unlikely to last long.

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