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    Canada’s international merchandise trade increased to $0.15 billion, recovering from a previous deficit of $6.32 billion.

    by VT Markets
    /
    Dec 11, 2025
    In October, Canada had a merchandise trade surplus of $0.15 billion. This is much better than the $6.32 billion deficit reported before. Exports played a big role in this positive change, increasing by 2.5%. Imports fell by 3.4%, which also helped create the surplus.

    Energy Exports and Consumer Goods Imports

    The increase in exports is partly due to more energy products being sold. On the other hand, the drop in imports is tied to fewer consumer goods being bought. Trade numbers have been shifting lately, showing how global trade can change rapidly. Global demand and changes in domestic production are key factors in this trend. The noteworthy change in Canada’s trade balance, from a $6.32 billion deficit in September 2025 to a surplus in October, is a good sign for the Canadian dollar. This data indicates strength in the Canadian economy, driven by increased export demand. Traders may want to prepare for further gains in the CAD against other currencies in the coming weeks.

    Economic Outlook and Trade Implications

    This trade surplus is supported by other recent positive data. For example, WTI crude oil prices, which are important for Canadian exports, have been steady, staying above $85 a barrel for most of the fourth quarter. In addition, Canada added 41,000 jobs in November 2025, showing strength in the job market. These positive signs come along with persistent inflation, which is currently at 2.9%. With the economy strengthening and inflation remaining high, it seems unlikely that the Bank of Canada will reduce interest rates early next year. The market has already started to adjust expectations for a rate cut in the first quarter of 2026. For derivative traders, this environment could favor strategies that benefit from a stronger CAD. One option is to buy call options on the Canadian dollar, possibly through selling puts on the USDCAD pair to take advantage of its potential decline. This approach is supported by improving economic fundamentals and a more aggressive stance from the central bank. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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