In April, building permits in Canada dropped by 6.6% compared to March, going against a predicted increase of 2.0%. The previous month’s numbers were also revised down, showing a decline of 5.3% instead of the estimated 4.1%. The total value of building permits in Canada for April was $11.7 billion, which is $829.6 million less than the prior month. British Columbia saw the largest drop, losing $1.2 billion, while Ontario gained $299.3 million. In constant 2023 dollars, there was a decrease of 6.6% month-over-month and 16.4% year-over-year. Residential construction permits fell to $7.4 billion, down by $967.7 million. The multi-family segment decreased by $882.5 million, mainly due to British Columbia’s decrease of $837.4 million. Vancouver contributed significantly to this with a loss of $1.0 billion. The single-family segment also dropped by $85.2 million, with Alberta experiencing the largest decline of $37.4 million, which was partially balanced by a $26.6 million increase in Quebec. In total, 21,400 multi-family and 4,200 single-family dwellings were authorized. Overall, 25,600 units were approved, which is a 6.5% decrease from March. This data shows a marked slowdown in building activity across the country, particularly in residential construction. Month-to-month results were weaker than expected, indicating a consistent downturn rather than a one-off event. British Columbia led the drop in total permit values with a significant $1.2 billion decline. The multi-family housing sector was the primary cause, particularly in Vancouver. In contrast, Ontario showed some resilience with an increase of nearly $300 million, but this was not enough to offset losses elsewhere. When adjusting for inflation, the decline is even clearer, showing a 6.6% drop month-over-month and a sharper 16.4% year-over-year. These figures provide a clearer perspective on the real decline in construction activity. A double-digit annual decline without any stabilizing trend indicates caution in demand and sentiment. The decrease in multi-family authorizations, both in dollar value and number of units, reflects hesitancy from developers. Fewer projects reaching the approval stage is often due to financing challenges, labor shortages, and uncertain demand, not a lack of interest. In April, 25,600 housing units were authorized, down 6.5% from March, with nearly 84% being multi-family. This shift signals a cooling trend from previous developments aiming for higher-density residential buildings. Alberta also saw a decline in single-family permits, though less dramatically. Quebec’s modest gain highlights that this trend is not uniform across provinces, but it is heading in that direction. What does this mean? The data suggests a conservative approach to construction planning. The gap between expectations and reality indicates that many thought the worst was over, but that is now in question. This difference may lead to volatility in contracts connected to housing or construction. While some expected a rebound after winter, current trends do not support such optimism. The prudent strategy now is to watch for resilience in specific provinces and check if it lasts long enough to provide a stable base. We’re focusing on provinces showing stable month-over-month values along with modest permitting approvals, as stability may reveal mispriced opportunities. As multi-family permits lead the decline, especially in cities like Vancouver, it signals a lack of interest in larger developments. Timelines may extend or financing may tighten. It’s crucial to consider regional differences rather than national averages, as the latter can hide significant disparities. We’ve seen this pattern before: numbers indicate a decline, while expectations remain too optimistic. For those dependent on construction inputs or housing-related credit, April’s data doesn’t suggest a rebound is on the horizon. The smarter focus is on tracking reversals from provinces that have experienced sharp declines. Recovery often takes longer than anticipated. Pay close attention when the same regions experience continued drops — these patterns can reveal more than isolated monthly results. We recommend exercising caution around instruments that assume a quick recovery, especially when future indicators are at best neutral. We’ll be tightening our short-term outlook and watching for false starts. Opportunities exist, but only where expectations have outpaced actual trends.

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