The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose about 200 points (0.4%) to around 49,400. The S&P 500 gained 0.54% to about 6,927, and the Nasdaq added roughly 1%. Markets built on Tuesday’s rebound, with quiet trading ahead of Nvidia’s fiscal Q4 2026 results after the close.
Nvidia was expected to report earnings per share of $1.53 on revenue of $65.7bn. That suggests about 68% to 72% year-on-year growth. Meta, Alphabet, and Amazon signaled more than $500bn in 2026 capex. Nvidia shares were about 1% higher, and Polymarket put the chance of an earnings beat at 94.5%.
Software Stocks Rebound
Software stocks extended their recovery after the iShares Expanded Tech-Software Sector ETF (IGV) fell nearly 5% on Monday. IBM rose 2.5% after dropping 13% on Monday. Microsoft gained 2.2%, and several other software and cybersecurity stocks also moved higher.
PayPal rose for a second day. It is up 13% over the past two sessions after reports that Stripe is considering a deal for all or parts of the company. PayPal closed Tuesday at $47.02, with a market cap near $43bn. By comparison, Stripe is reported to have a private valuation of $159bn.
Gold traded around $5,120 per ounce after dipping below $5,200. The CME FedWatch Tool showed a 96% chance of no rate change on 18 March, keeping the target range at 3.50% to 3.75%.
The market looks cautious ahead of Nvidia’s results later today. Options markets are pricing a move of more than 11% in either direction. This shows how important the report is for the AI sector. It may also appeal to traders who want event-driven volatility rather than a directional bet.
Event Driven Trading Focus
The rebound in software stocks such as Salesforce and IBM suggests that the AI-disruption fears from earlier this week are easing. We see this as a potential buying opportunity, especially if Nvidia’s report confirms strong ongoing AI spending. The iShares software ETF (IGV) has already recovered more than half of Monday’s 5% drop, which points to renewed confidence in the sector.
PayPal’s move now appears driven by takeover speculation, not its core business results. This has pushed implied volatility higher, making options more expensive. That can create opportunities for premium sellers. Since talks with Stripe are described as early-stage, a short-term trade may be safer than a long-term position.
The broader economic picture looks steady for now, which supports the current risk-on mood. With FedWatch showing a 96% chance the Fed holds rates steady in March, one major uncertainty is temporarily removed. That shifts attention to company-specific catalysts in the near term, with the latest January 2026 CPI reading staying near 2.8%.
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