Century Aluminium (CENX) is a primary aluminium producer with operations in the United States and Europe. The share price was little changed this morning after rising from about $46 in late March to $68–$69 in early April, before a bearish reversal near the highs.
Since early April, the price has trended lower with defined support and resistance levels. If selling continues, a first support area is a gap fill at $53.25, about 10–11% below the current price.
Key Support Levels
Below that, a 0.786 Fibonacci retracement is at $51.13 and aligns with a pivot level. A further support area is a gap fill at $46.65, just under the Fibonacci level.
On the upside, two resistance areas are identified if the price rebounds. The first is a gap fill at $65.61, about 8% above the current price.
Another resistance zone is around $68.29, which matches a double top and prior pivot high near the early April reversal area. A move above the all-time high is described as a breakout level for risk control.
Following the big run-up in March and April, CENX has been struggling to find its footing. This makes sense given that LME aluminum prices have fallen about 5% from their recent highs to near $2,550 per tonne. We are now watching to see if the stock’s weakness continues in the coming weeks.
For those looking to play a bounce, the gap fill at $53.25 is the first level of interest for an aggressive trade. A trader might consider buying short-term calls or selling puts here, but this is a high-risk play for a quick rebound. We remember the volatility back in 2025 when initial support levels like this often failed during broader market weakness.
Short Setup And Risk Control
A more patient approach would be to wait for the $46.65 level, which lines up with a gap fill and a key Fibonacci level. This area offers a much stronger technical setup for a potential bottom. With the latest ISM Manufacturing PMI reading at 49.8 showing a slight contraction, having a stronger reason to buy is crucial.
We believe the better risk-to-reward opportunity lies on the short side, especially if the stock attempts a relief rally. Any move up toward the $65.61 gap fill presents a chance to buy puts or establish a short position. This strategy works well given the company’s own cautious guidance on energy costs and demand from its last earnings call.
The prime shorting zone remains the double top area around $68.29, where the stock was rejected hard back in April. A failure at this level would confirm the downtrend is still very much intact. Any short positions from these upper levels should have a tight stop placed just above the all-time highs, because a breakout would invalidate the entire bearish view.
