US CFTC data shows net positions in oil under the non-commercial category fell to 169.9K. The previous reading was 178.8K.
This is a decrease of 8.9K compared with the prior period. The figures describe changes in positioning reported to the CFTC.
We’ve seen a notable shift in speculative sentiment for crude oil, as the net long position held by non-commercial traders has dropped to 169,900 contracts. This is a clear reduction in bullish bets from large funds. The nearly 9,000-contract drop indicates that conviction in higher prices is waning.
This move aligns with recent market data, as the EIA reported an unexpected inventory build of 1.8 million barrels last week, against forecasts of a slight draw. Furthermore, the latest industrial production figures from Germany and China for April 2026 both came in below expectations, fueling concerns about global demand. A stronger dollar, which has risen 1.2% this month, is also adding pressure to commodity prices.
Looking back, we saw a similar pattern of speculative selling in the fourth quarter of 2025 just before the price corrected by nearly 12%. That period was also marked by worries over slowing economic growth after a series of rate hikes. The current decline in net length, while not as severe yet, echoes that previous shift away from risk.
Given this weakening sentiment, we should consider adjusting strategies to account for increased downside risk in the coming weeks. This may involve buying out-of-the-money puts as a cheap hedge against a sharp drop or selling call spreads to profit if prices remain capped. Reducing overall long exposure until a clear support level is established would be a prudent measure.
We are watching the $79 per barrel level for WTI crude, as a break below could trigger further technical selling. All eyes will now be on the upcoming OPEC+ meeting in early June, as their production policy decision will be critical. Until then, implied volatility might rise, making options-based strategies more attractive for managing risk.
