The oil net positions in the United States CFTC have risen from 153.3K to 156K. This change reflects a shift in market sentiment or activity regarding oil. In currency markets, the EUR/USD climbed over 1.1550 after disappointing US employment figures were released. Meanwhile, GBP/USD bounced back above 1.3250 as the US dollar weakened. Gold prices increased to recent weekly highs of around $3,350. This rise happened as US Treasury bond yields decreased, which affected expectations for the Federal Reserve’s interest rates after weak jobs data. Cryptocurrency markets are facing challenges after a strong July. Bitcoin fell below $115,000, looking toward the $112,000 support level while liquidations in the crypto market increased. In the euro area, the economy showed resilience, boosted by the EU-US deal and Germany’s spending plans. However, there are still risks of more cuts later this year or early next year, depending on wage growth. The rise in CFTC oil net long positions suggests that institutions remain optimistic about higher prices. This belief is supported by the latest Energy Information Administration (EIA) report from late July 2025, which noted a surprising decrease in crude inventory by 3.1 million barrels. This is a positive sign for the weeks to come, making long positions in WTI futures appealing. The broad weakness of the US dollar offers a good chance in currency markets. This trend emerged after the disappointing July 2025 Non-Farm Payrolls report, which indicated job growth of just 95,000 instead of the expected 180,000. We see this as an opportunity to favor long positions in EUR/USD and GBP/USD as expectations for Federal Reserve tightening adjust. Gold’s rise to $3,350 is a direct response to weak US job data, which led the 10-year Treasury yield to drop to 3.5%. Historically, similar situations in the late 2010s show that falling yields and a weaker dollar benefit precious metals. We expect further growth for gold and suggest considering buying call options targeting the $3,400 mark. In the cryptocurrency market, a necessary correction is happening after July’s high performance. The drop of Bitcoin below $115,000 is due to over $500 million in long position liquidations in the last two days. Caution is advised as we wait for prices to stabilize around the $112,000 support level before making new long investments. The euro area’s strength is further supported by a slight increase in the July 2025 German IFO Business Climate index. However, the European Central Bank remains concerned about wage growth, indicating potential rate cuts later this year. We can take advantage of the current strength but should also prepare for possible reversals in the fourth quarter.

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