The United States Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) reports that net oil positions have climbed. They increased to 103,000 from the previous figure of 98,700. While updates like these offer valuable market insights, they come with risks and uncertainties. The data is for information only and should not guide your trading decisions.

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Non-Personalised Data Sharing

FXStreet and the author stress that they share non-personalised data. They will not be liable for any information errors that may arise from using it. Non-commercial traders, or large speculators, are increasingly betting that oil prices will go up. The latest data shows net long positions have reached 103,000 contracts, reflecting a growing optimistic outlook among traders. This indicates that knowledgeable investors expect oil prices to rise soon. This outlook may be linked to seasonal demand as we approach the fourth quarter. There are forecasts for a colder-than-average winter in Europe and North America, which could increase the need for heating oil. Consequently, WTI crude prices have jumped over 4% this month, reaching around $85 a barrel in anticipation of this change. On the supply side, OPEC+ announced last week they will keep their current production cuts in place until the end of 2025. This decision removes a significant amount of oil from the market right when demand is expected to grow. This disciplined approach to supply is a major factor driving the positive outlook among these traders. The overall economic landscape also supports this view, as recent data shows that global manufacturing activity is performing better than expected. For instance, the recent US ISM Manufacturing PMI surprised everyone by expanding to 50.9, indicating strong industrial demand for energy. This positive economic environment eases fears of a recession that could harm demand, which was a concern earlier in the year. In the autumn of 2023, we saw a similar increase in speculative long positions just before oil prices surged into the winter months. This historical pattern suggests we might be entering another phase of price increases. Thus, the current positioning by non-commercial traders is an important signal. For derivative traders, this indicates that strategies benefiting from rising oil prices could be promising in the coming weeks. Options like long calls or bull call spreads might provide opportunities for profit while managing risk. With recent market volatility causing the VIX to hit 15 last week, it’s crucial to monitor position sizes carefully. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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