CFTC oil net positions in the U.S. climbed to 78.8k from 58.1k previously. The EUR/USD has risen past 1.1800, while the USD/JPY has dropped to multi-week lows. Meanwhile, the GBP/USD hit 1.3600, reaching four-month highs, and gold prices are nearing the $5,000 mark.

UBS Cryptocurrency Services

UBS Group AG is thinking about offering cryptocurrency investment services, such as Bitcoin and Ethereum, to select private clients in Switzerland. Bitcoin, on the other hand, is struggling to stay above $90,000, correcting around 5% this week amid market fluctuations. Next week, important meetings from the Fed and BoC are expected due to geopolitical changes and Trump’s Fed chair nomination. The Fed is likely to take a break after three rate cuts, while the BoC is predicted to keep its current position. The FXStreet page includes various legal disclaimers, making readers aware of the risks and uncertainties in the market. It advises doing thorough research before making financial choices since no investment advice is given, and all risks fall on the investor. The recent rise in speculative net long oil positions to 78,800 contracts is a strong bullish signal. This positive sentiment, along with a declining U.S. Dollar, provides a boost to crude prices. Additionally, the recent Energy Information Administration (EIA) data showing a surprise inventory drop of 2.1 million barrels reinforces the case for higher prices through tools like WTI call options.

US Dollar and Precious Metals Rally

The sharp decline of the U.S. Dollar to four-month lows is a key trend that is likely to continue. With the Federal Reserve pausing after several rate cuts in 2025, and rumors of Japanese intervention similar to 2022, the dollar is expected to weaken further. Traders might consider buying puts on the Dollar Index (DXY) as it tests the 98.50 support level, or purchasing call options on EUR/USD and GBP/USD. This dollar weakness is driving the rally in precious metals, with gold nearing the significant $5,000 mark. The strong negative correlation between gold and the DXY has been evident, with a rate of -0.7 over the past quarter. Buying call spreads on gold futures could present an opportunity to target this psychological barrier while managing risk. The broader market shows a strong risk-on attitude, driven by easing trade tensions. While this environment supports equities, the rapid drop of the dollar brings some instability. The VIX, which measures expected market volatility, is currently low near 13.5, making it a cost-effective time to buy protective puts on stock indices as a hedge against potential disorder in this currency-driven rally. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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