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    CFTC reports decrease in Japan’s JPY NC net positions from ¥141K to ¥88K

    by VT Markets
    /
    Jan 10, 2026
    The net positions of non-commercial traders in the Japanese yen (JPY) have gone down. They used to be ¥141,000, but now they are at ¥88,000. This shows a reduction in these positions.

    Change in Speculative Positions

    Non-commercial net positions in the Yen fell from ¥141K to just ¥88K. This is a strong indication that large speculators are quickly changing their bets on the Yen getting stronger. This shift suggests that many believe the Yen is likely to weaken, which could raise the USD/JPY pair. Throughout 2025, we saw increasing pressure as the interest rate gap between the U.S. and Japan grew wider. The Bank of Japan has repeatedly stated it will keep its ultra-low rates, while strong inflation data from December 2025 keeps the Federal Reserve on a more aggressive path. This difference in policy makes holding dollars much more appealing than holding yen. The popular carry trade gained momentum when USD/JPY crossed the crucial 160 level late last year. Data from Q4 2025 showed record capital outflows from Japan as investors sought better yields overseas. This big drop in speculative long positions suggests that traders believe this trend is not only ongoing but speeding up.

    Implications for Derivative Traders

    For derivative traders, this points to a strategy of preparing for more Yen weakness in the weeks ahead. Buying call options on USD/JPY is a clear way to take advantage of this momentum. Right now, the easier path seems to be a higher USD/JPY exchange rate. We should expect an increase in implied volatility for yen currency pairs. Such a quick change in positions often leads to bigger price movements as the market finds a new balance. This may raise the cost of options, indicating that establishing positions sooner could be beneficial. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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