The CFTC’s oil net positions in the United States have jumped to 124.6K, up from 97K. This shows increased activity in the oil market. In currency news, the EUR/USD has recovered, nearing 1.1820, as the US Dollar weakens due to speculation about a possible interest rate cut by the Fed. Meanwhile, the GBP/USD has risen back to the 1.3600 mark, as the US Dollar retreats from its recent highs.

Gold and Cryptocurrency Trends

Gold prices have soared to over $4,900 per troy ounce, moving towards the $5,000 level as investors seek safer assets. In the cryptocurrency market, Bitcoin has climbed above $65,000, with Ethereum and Ripple also seeing significant gains. Ripple has jumped over 21% from its intraday low. In other news, Japan’s upcoming snap election may impact the Yen. The Canadian Dollar has gained strength due to positive jobs data. Additionally, various broker recommendations for 2026 are available, catering to different trading needs and market areas. Currently, we are witnessing a significant change in the oil market, with speculative net long positions increasing sharply to 124.6K. This indicates that major traders are betting on higher oil prices soon. The growing bullish sentiment suggests we can expect continued upward movement. The key factor here is the rising speculation that the Federal Reserve may cut interest rates as early as next month. A rate cut would weaken the US Dollar, making oil cheaper for foreign buyers, thereby increasing demand. This weakness is reflected in the rising EUR/USD and GBP/USD pairs. This sentiment follows data from late 2025, showing inflation is cooling. For example, the core PCE price index—preferred by the Fed—fell to an annual rate of 2.2% in Q4 2025, down from over 3.5% earlier in the year. A softer jobs report in January 2026, which showed non-farm payrolls at 155K instead of the expected 190K, has strengthened the case for an earlier rate cut.

Market Sentiment and Strategy

We can refer back to the market shift in 2023 as an indicator of what may happen next. At that time, once the market felt the Fed had finished raising rates, risk assets and commodities began a strong rally that lasted for months. The current scenario, with speculators piling into long positions before the first cut, feels very similar. This weak dollar situation is also pushing gold prices higher, with gold aiming for the critical $5,000 level. Traders should view this as a broader market theme rather than just an isolated increase in oil. The rebound in cryptocurrencies additionally signals a renewed “risk-on” attitude among investors. In the upcoming weeks, consider positioning for continued strength in oil through call options or long futures contracts. Given the strong trend, options on currency pairs like the EUR/USD may also present opportunities to benefit from further dollar weakness. Watch for momentum to build as the market increasingly anticipates a rate cut in March. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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