The United States Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has reported a big jump in oil positions, rising from 74,300 to 398,000. This shows that traders are becoming more active in the oil market. The US Dollar Index is now around 99.20 as we await important US economic data. Meanwhile, the AUD/USD continues to strengthen due to the Reserve Bank of Australia’s strong position. WTI oil prices are drifting lower, trading below $58.50, partly because of ongoing peace talks between Russia and Ukraine.

Silver and Currency Markets

Silver prices are stable below the mid-$58 range, staying close to record highs. The NZD/USD is gaining ground near 0.5750, thanks to positive PMI reports from China and expectations of a rate cut by the US Federal Reserve. The EUR/USD rose by 0.12%, now trading at 1.1625, driven by speculation around a potential Fed rate cut and high inflation in the Eurozone. Gold prices have climbed above $4,200 as traders anticipate upcoming US economic data. Bitcoin is trading above $87,000 amidst pressures from the manufacturing sector and possible rate hikes by the Bank of Japan. The White House is gearing up for a legal battle over tariffs imposed by Trump, while also considering other policy options. A 2025 broker guide ranks the top brokers, including those with low spreads, high leverage, and Islamic accounts, among other features.

Market Strategy and Trading Outlook

The sharp increase in oil positioning is a clear signal for traders. Speculators have boosted their net long positions from 74,300 to 398,000 contracts, indicating strong bullish sentiment not seen since the supply-chain issues of 2022. We recommend looking at call options on WTI futures to take advantage of a possible price rise from its current level below $58.50. We see a weakening US Dollar as a key trend for the upcoming weeks. The market is nearly certain of a rate cut, with CME FedWatch showing an 85% chance for a cut at the December 18 meeting. This explains why the Dollar Index has dropped from nearly 104 two months ago to about 99.20 now. This situation makes being short on the dollar an attractive strategy, especially against the Euro. The EUR/USD’s rise above 1.1600 reflects these rate cut expectations. We should consider taking long positions on EUR/USD, while the GBP/USD appears less stable near 1.3200, given the Bank of England’s dovish stance. Gold’s climb toward $4,250 and silver’s close to record highs are closely linked to the declining dollar and ongoing inflation. With last month’s official CPI data at 3.5%, these metals are serving as a primary hedge. It’s wise to remain long on these, but be aware that these positions are becoming crowded and may be at risk of reversal. All our positions depend on the upcoming US ADP and ISM Services data. A weak report could drive momentum, pushing oil and gold higher while further weakening the dollar. Conversely, a surprisingly strong report could lead to a sharp reversal in these popular trades. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

here to set up a live account on VT Markets now