Wave Projections

We expect a corrective pullback in wave II, which could happen in 3, 7, or 11 swings. The Fibonacci projections suggest that wave I will likely reach the ₹1,200–₹1,300 range. Our long-term targets for wave (III) are around ₹1,690 and ₹2,460, based on Fibonacci extensions. Chennai Petroleum is benefiting from higher refining margins and increasing demand in India. The company’s strong performance and role in the energy sector support this positive outlook. The Elliott Wave pattern confirms these fundamentals, maintaining a favorable trend for buyers. In summary, completing wave (II) at ₹434.10 supports the potential for further gains. The price could surpass ₹1,200 in the coming months as part of wave I of (III).

Technical Outlook and Strategies

In the upcoming weeks, we expect a short-term pullback before another major move upwards. This dip would be a perfect point to enter bullish positions, like buying call options or starting bull call spreads. Our analysis indicates that we are in the early stages of a powerful new upward wave, making it a key strategy to enter during dips. This technical outlook is backed by strong fundamentals as of late 2025. India’s petroleum consumption remains solid, with a 5.2% year-over-year increase in demand reported in October 2025, partly due to festive season travel. Additionally, Asian refining margins have been strong, with Singapore Gross Refining Margins averaging over $8.50 per barrel in the quarter ending September 2025, enhancing profitability for refiners like Chennai Petroleum. Reflecting on the past, we recall the stock’s strong rally in early 2024, which set the peak of the previous cycle. The current setup suggests a retest of that high is likely, targeting ₹1,200 to ₹1,300 in the coming months. This gives us a clear price goal for structuring trades, possibly using call options with strike prices near or below these levels. For traders, selling out-of-the-money puts below the support level may be a good strategy to collect premiums while managing risk. Alternatively, purchasing at-the-money call options for the next few expiration cycles will allow for participation in the expected upward trend. It’s important to manage risk around the ₹434.10 invalidation point, as a drop below it would prompt exiting any bullish positions. Overall, the chart shows an upward trend, aligning with the company’s strong position in a high-demand sector. We view the path of least resistance as upward, with long-term wave projections indicating ₹1,690. Therefore, we are not considering short positions and will see any price decline as a buying opportunity. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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