China’s home prices in April 2025 did not change from the previous month, remaining at 0.0%. This is the same as March’s figures, which also showed no change. However, when looking at the year-over-year numbers, prices dropped by 4.0%, an improvement from the earlier decline of 4.5%. This indicates ongoing difficulties in China’s housing market. April marks the 23rd month in a row of falling prices. Month-over-month, there was a slight decrease of -0.12%, compared to -0.08% in March. The latest data highlights a housing market that remains weak. Home prices stayed flat between March and April 2025, continuing a two-month trend. Though it might seem like a pause, this stagnation is happening in a market that has been struggling for nearly two years. While prices are down by 4.0% year-over-year compared to last April, which is slightly better than the previous 4.5% drop, it still signals that the pressure on prices continues. On a monthly basis, the picture worsened slightly. Prices fell by 0.12% in April after a 0.08% decline in March. This may not seem significant, but it suggests that downward pressure is still at play. The market is characterized by stressed developers and weak buyer confidence, along with project delays and cautious investors. Despite the government’s efforts to ease restrictions, these haven’t yet made a noticeable impact. Wang, an economist focused on China, points out that the lack of monthly improvements shows that available policies aren’t being effectively implemented in the market. There’s a disconnect in confidence—while the central government aims to stabilize sentiment with supportive measures, local governments and financial institutions are hesitant to take on more risk. Lee provides insight, indicating that while major cities are beginning to stabilize, smaller cities are still struggling. These regions face issues like surplus inventory, declining developer trust, and low population growth. This difference offers a clearer picture: markets driven by speculation rather than real housing demand will take longer to stabilize. What does this mean for investors watching closely? The ongoing downturn—now 23 months—should be taken seriously. The momentum in pricing remains negative, and the absence of month-to-month improvement suggests there could be more declines in housing-related investments. The market is undergoing structural changes, but it is far from complete. Pricing pressures are likely to persist, especially if upcoming policy changes falter or if confidence dips again. Timing is critical here. Next month’s data will not just be another statistic—it could signal key shifts for short-term investments or recalibrations for medium-term positions. The narrowing year-on-year decline may offer some comfort, but it does not indicate a recovery. April’s month-on-month drop serves as a reminder that slowing down doesn’t mean improvement. What matters now is the trend, not the severity of the decline. Differences between major and minor cities shouldn’t be ignored. In areas with location-specific investments, performance may start to diverge. This means more precise strategies are needed. Tailored approaches can thrive in uneven markets, particularly in cities where government policy may boost certain regions first. Looking ahead, uncertainty remains. With the broader economy not picking up steam quickly and developers adopting cautious strategies, significant rebounds in real estate valuations are still challenging. For now, discipline is key—not only in direction but in timing. As volatility decreases, finer pricing details will become more important.

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