USD/CNY was trading near 6.78, while Commerzbank’s model pointed to a slightly stronger People’s Bank of China fixing than the previous day. The yuan’s tone has been shaped by Beijing’s decision to lean on domestic oil reserves instead of bidding aggressively in global crude markets, even as producer and consumer inflation diverged. In May, PPI rose 3.9% year on year versus 2.8% in April, whereas CPI increased 1.2% year on year, below Bloomberg consensus of 1.3%. Core CPI eased to 1.1% from 1.2% in April, underscoring margin pressure without generating a sharp FX reaction.
To manage the impact of the war in Iran, China has been drawing down commercial and strategic stockpiles; satellite data suggested nearly 25mn barrels were tapped in the month to 7 June. Inventory draws are projected at about 1mb/d in coming months, around a third of supply lost to China after the near-closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a shortfall framed against estimated total reserves of 1.2bn barrels. State-owned refiners have cut processing rates to record lows and fuel exports have been constrained under wartime preservation rules.
Beijing’s Reserve Strategy and Yuan Stability
The global oil shock, intensified by the war in Iran, is being carefully managed by Beijing, which is keeping the Yuan surprisingly stable. We see USD/CNY holding near the 6.78 mark because China is drawing on its domestic crude stockpiles instead of buying on the open market. This reduces the need to purchase US dollars and provides a powerful buffer for the currency.
With Brent crude futures having pushed past $145 a barrel, this reserve strategy is key to the currency’s resilience. In the derivatives market, we are seeing this reflected in 1-month implied volatility for USD/CNY, which has dropped to a low of 3.5%. This tells us that traders do not expect any sharp movements in the coming weeks.
Domestic Economic Pressures and Currency Outlook
However, we must watch the growing pressure on the domestic economy, where the gap between surging factory costs and weak consumer prices is the widest it has been since June 2022. This squeeze on company profits is confirmed by the latest Caixin Manufacturing PMI figure of 50.1, signaling that weak internal demand will cap any significant Yuan strength. The fundamental economic picture argues against a strong rally.
Given these opposing forces, we believe the most effective approach is to position for a range-bound market. The combination of official management and weak underlying fundamentals suggests strategies that profit from low volatility, such as selling strangles, are appropriate. We do not anticipate a breakout above 6.80 or a drop below 6.75 in the near term.
This situation is reminiscent of the 2022 energy crisis, when a similar use of state reserves and intervention kept the Yuan on a controlled path while other global currencies faced extreme volatility. We expect history to repeat itself, with policy actions effectively insulating the currency from the worst of the global price shock.
