China’s import prices have risen year on year since September 2025, with industrial purchase prices and the PPI turning positive in March before jumping in April and May, ending a deflation stretch of more than three years. The move has been driven by upstream metals, electronics linked to global AI demand, and petrol-related costs connected to the Middle East conflict. The official export price index climbed to a near three-year high in April, but export price gains have trailed import prices in both timing and scale in recent years.
Price transmission appears concentrated upstream: PPI inflation is softer in manufacturing than in mining and raw materials, while consumer goods PPI remains in deflation. Overall export price growth has lagged that of key trading partners, suggesting China’s exports continue to damp global inflation pressures, although IC export prices have exceeded IC import prices during the global AI investment boom. Current cost reflation is expected to be milder than in 2021-22, as it lacks an ultra-low base tied to COVID disruptions and comes alongside weaker domestic demand, reflected in falling manufacturing capacity utilisation rates.
Drivers of Upstream Reflation and Market Strategies
We are seeing China’s producer prices rise, ending a long deflationary period, largely due to higher import costs for oil and AI-related components. China’s National Bureau of Statistics recently reported May’s PPI rose 1.2% year-over-year, yet the corresponding CPI was a muted 0.5%. This suggests weak domestic demand is preventing cost pressures from passing through to consumers, which could squeeze margins for domestic-facing companies.
This inflation is concentrated in upstream sectors like mining and raw materials, while manufacturing and consumer goods prices lag. With Brent crude recently topping $95 a barrel and copper futures holding near multi-year highs, we believe long positions in commodity-linked assets are justified. Consider call options on commodity ETFs or futures contracts to gain exposure to this trend over the next few weeks.
An important exception is the artificial intelligence sector, where Chinese integrated circuit export prices are surging due to intense global demand. This is happening as global tech giants continue to announce multi-billion dollar investments in data centers, with Nvidia’s latest earnings report showing sustained, record demand for their chips. We see an opportunity in buying call options on select Chinese semiconductor and AI-hardware firms poised to benefit.
Implications for Global Inflation and Trading Opportunities
Because China’s export price growth is lagging behind its key trading partners, its exports continue to act as a global disinflationary force. This may give central banks like the Federal Reserve more room to hold off on further rate hikes, contrary to some market expectations. This outlook could support trades that benefit from stable or falling interest rates, such as positions in government bond futures.
The current cost-driven reflation is unlikely to be as strong as the 2021-22 period, given softer domestic demand reflected in the industrial capacity utilization rate slipping to 75.2% in Q1 2026. This suggests that while producer prices are rising, the upward momentum may be limited. We are therefore cautious of outright bullish bets and prefer strategies like bull call spreads on industrial indices, which profit from a moderate price increase while capping risk.
