China’s inflation picture remains soft. May CPI was unchanged at 1.2% year on year, while core CPI eased to 1.1%; at the same time, PPI climbed to 3.9%, a four-year high, pointing to weak consumer demand alongside pressure on corporate margins. External conditions were firmer, with the trade surplus widening to $105.4bn on the back of strong export growth, including AI-related products.
Policy has combined targeted easing with tighter controls on capital flows to manage USD movements and curb yuan strength. Measures cited include nudging banks to attract USD deposits above SOFR to keep export proceeds offshore, alongside stricter cross-border enforcement. The yuan has continued to serve as a regional anchor, while Chinese bonds have remained resilient even as 10-year CGB yields rose about 5bp from early-June lows.
Yuan Stability Amid Diverging Economic Forces
We are seeing a clear divergence in China’s economy that points toward continued stability in the yuan. Consumer inflation is very subdued at just 1.2%, indicating weak domestic demand. At the same time, a strong trade surplus, now over $105 billion, is putting natural upward pressure on the currency.
This push-and-pull is being actively managed by authorities who want to keep the yuan from strengthening too quickly. They are combining tighter capital controls with incentives for exporters to keep their dollar earnings offshore. This managed approach is a key reason why the USD/CNH has consistently found support, struggling to break significantly lower for much of the past two years.
Implications For Trading And Asset Markets
For our trading in the coming weeks, this policy mix signals suppressed volatility. The People’s Bank of China is effectively capping the yuan’s upside, making large, sudden moves unlikely. We should look at strategies that profit from this stability, such as selling out-of-the-money options to collect premium.
Given the combination of targeted domestic easing and the desire to limit yuan strength, any gradual drift is more likely to favor a weaker currency. A modest, defined-risk strategy like buying USD/CNH call spreads could be effective. This would allow us to profit from a slow grind higher in the pair without taking on unlimited risk.
This stability is mirrored in the bond market, where 10-year government bond yields have held steady, barely moving from their recent lows. This contrasts with volatility in other global markets and reinforces the view that Chinese assets are being positioned as a managed haven. For now, we see little reason to position for a major breakout in the currency.
