Chinese smelters are increasing copper exports due to high global prices. This move is affecting copper and zinc prices, causing a recent decline. In the first eight months of the year, Chinese exports of unwrought copper and copper products rose 13% compared to last year. On the other hand, zinc concentrate exports dropped nearly 20%. The last significant zinc exports occurred in 2022 when smelters outside China cut production because of rising energy costs. These changes show how market conditions and production challenges can alter export patterns. With global market prices high, Chinese smelters are exporting more metals, putting pressure on copper prices. Data supports this, showing that Chinese exports of unwrought copper and related products through August 2025 are up 13% from the same period last year. This response is logical, especially as China’s domestic demand is slowing, with new property projects down over 20% year-on-year. For traders, this suggests that copper prices may decline further soon. COMEX copper has struggled to stay above $4.40 per pound. Therefore, establishing short positions or buying puts during price jumps could be a wise strategy. We should keep an eye out for any drops below key support levels since this export trend is unlikely to change unless China’s domestic economy improves significantly. The situation for zinc is different and presents a potential trading opportunity. Chinese exports of zinc concentrate are down almost 20% compared to last year. This contrasts sharply with copper and indicates that Chinese smelters are holding onto raw materials for their own use. It’s important to note that the last major zinc exports occurred during the European energy crisis in 2022, a situation that has now stabilized. With European smelters back to full production, the global market relies less on Chinese finished zinc. This could help stabilize prices as the supply of concentrate remains tight. Thus, a strategy of being short on copper while holding a neutral or long stance on zinc could be beneficial in the upcoming weeks.

here to set up a live account on VT Markets now