In July 2025, China’s exports grew by 7.2% compared to the same month last year. This was better than the expected 5.4% increase and the previous rise of 5.8%. Imports also improved, increasing by 4.1% year-on-year, instead of the expected drop of 1.0%. This was an improvement over the previous growth of 1.1%. China had a trade surplus of 84.2 billion USD. However, this was less than the predicted 105 billion USD and lower than the previous 114.8 billion USD. Exports to the United States fell by 21.6% from last year, although transshipments complicate accurate tracking.

Year-To-Date Numbers

From January to July, exports grew by 6.1% year-on-year, while imports decreased by 2.7%. The trade balance for this period was 683.5 billion USD. Exports to the US dropped by 12.6%, and imports from the US fell by 10.3%. After the data release, the yuan was stable, with USD/CNH trading slightly higher at around 7.1840. The stronger-than-expected trade data for July 2025 highlights new opportunities in commodities. The surprise 4.1% rise in imports, instead of a decline, suggests a rebound in domestic demand. This supports a positive outlook for industrial metals, indicating that call options on copper and iron ore futures may be rewarding. Specifically, iron ore futures on the Dalian exchange rose above $120 per tonne in late July 2025. This import data is likely to support prices, especially as steel production margins have improved. Additionally, copper inventories in Shanghai and London Metal Exchange warehouses have been declining steadily since early 2025, confirming strong physical demand.

Impact on Commodities and Currencies

This data also supports crude oil prices, which are around $95 per barrel for Brent. As the world’s largest oil importer, China’s economic activity translates to increased energy consumption. This complicates supply since OPEC+ has been strict about production levels. For currency traders, the yuan’s lack of movement is significant. Despite the strong data, the USD/CNH pair remains high around 7.18 because the US Federal Reserve is continuing a “higher for longer” interest rate strategy. This suggests that range-trading strategies, like selling straddles or strangles on the yuan, are better than betting on major changes. China’s strength is beneficial for global stocks that rely on its market. This is reflected in Australian mining shares, with the ASX 200 materials index gaining over the past week. Traders should also consider call options on European luxury and automotive brands, as they are highly influenced by Chinese consumer behavior. The ongoing decline in exports to the US indicates a realignment in trade patterns seen over the past few years. While these numbers are disappointing, we know trade is being redirected through countries like Vietnam and Mexico. This supports the idea of seeking growth in emerging markets rather than waiting for a quick rebound in US-China trade figures. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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