The EUR/USD pair has stayed stable this week, mainly due to a slightly weaker dollar. The German ZEW expectations index for November didn’t show encouraging results, but the overall eurozone ZEW figure went up, leading to questions about Germany’s unique position.

ECB Event Focus

Today, no major eurozone data is expected. Instead, attention will be on ECB speakers, particularly Isabel Schnabel, who will discuss “Europe Reimagined: The Path to Empowerment” at 12:30 CET. This suggests a focus on improving cohesion in the eurozone and advocating for policy changes. EUR/USD is currently trading closer to 1.16 than 1.15. A rise beyond 1.16 will likely rely on weak US data. We are maintaining gains around the 1.1600 level in EUR/USD. This seems more about the dollar’s weakness than any significant strength in the euro. The upcoming price movements will largely depend on whether new US economic data supports this trend. If it does, we could see a sustained increase. The outlook for a weaker dollar is growing, especially after recent US inflation and job data for October 2025. The headline CPI was slightly lower than expected at 3.1%, while job creation slowed to 140,000, raising the unemployment rate to 4.0%. This data may lead the Federal Reserve to consider pausing or shifting to a more dovish stance, which traders should keep an eye on.

Eurozone Concerns

On the other hand, the euro is having difficulty gaining momentum. The weak German ZEW survey from yesterday is troubling and reflects the broader industrial slowdown shown in Germany’s recent Q3 2025 GDP, which only grew by 0.1%. Although overall eurozone data is slightly better, this internal weakness is likely to keep the European Central Bank cautious, limiting the euro’s potential for growth. For traders using derivatives, this environment suggests looking for limited-risk strategies that can benefit from a breakout. Buying call options with a strike price around 1.1650 or 1.1700 in the coming weeks could help profit from further weak US data. This strategy also protects against unexpected US economic strength that could cause the dollar to bounce back. We have seen the 1.1600 level act as a key pivot point in the past, particularly in late 2021 before a major downtrend began. Back then, the differences in policy between the Fed and ECB drove the market, a trend we may see repeating now. A solid break above 1.1600 would need a clear shift in this narrative, especially signs of a more dovish Fed. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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