ING said the broader US Dollar trend is mixed. Near-term drivers include the ADP jobs report, consumer confidence data, comments from several Federal Reserve speakers, and President Trump’s State of the Union address. The bank added that DXY has stalled near 98.00 and is likely to stay in a 97.50–98.00 range.
The report cited Federal Reserve official Christopher Waller, who said the strong January NFP figure may be revised lower because it does not line up with other labour market data. In that context, ING said a weak ADP print could be mildly negative for the Dollar.
Consumer Confidence And Dollar Direction
On consumer confidence, ING highlighted a gap between downbeat surveys and solid real-world spending. It said a modest improvement in February confidence is unlikely to change the Dollar’s direction.
ING also flagged upcoming remarks from Fed speakers, including Goolsbee and Bostic, who it described as more hawkish. The article noted it was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.
With the broader Dollar trend still mixed, a range-bound approach looks most sensible in the coming weeks. For derivatives traders, this favours strategies that can benefit from low volatility, such as selling strangles or using iron condors. Overall, the market appears to be consolidating rather than preparing for a strong breakout.
Recent labour data also sends conflicting signals. January Non-Farm Payrolls surprised to the upside, adding more than 300,000 jobs. But last week’s ADP employment number was much softer at 160,000. This mismatch supports the view that the January NFP gain could be revised lower, which would limit the Dollar’s upside on the back of “strong jobs” headlines.
Technical Levels And Range Bound Outlook
There is also a persistent divergence between how consumers say they feel and how they actually spend. The latest University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment index fell to 69.7, yet January retail sales rose a healthy 0.6% month over month. With sentiment weak but spending firm, upcoming confidence data is unlikely to be the catalyst that breaks the Dollar out of its current range.
Federal Reserve messaging has also supported sideways trading. More hawkish officials, such as Atlanta Fed President Bostic, have warned about inflation. Even so, markets largely expect the Fed to hold policy steady through the second quarter. That view shows up in options pricing: the Cboe Currency Volatility Index (DXY) has dropped below 6.0, its lowest level since the fourth quarter of 2025.
On the charts, DXY has failed twice over the past month to break above 98.00, reinforcing that area as strong resistance. With support near 97.50, those levels look like the most likely boundaries for price action into March. The State of the Union address could cause short-term noise, but it is unlikely to change the broader picture.
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