Colombia’s consumer price index rose 0.47% month on month in May, undershooting the 0.51% consensus estimate. The reading points to slightly softer price pressures than markets had pencilled in, while still indicating an increase in the overall cost of living versus April.
On a monthly basis, the data place May inflation marginally below expectations, with the 0.47% outcome coming in 0.04 percentage points under the 0.51% forecast. The CPI release provides an updated gauge of near-term inflation dynamics for Colombia, with the surprise concentrated in the month-on-month change.
Implications for Monetary Policy and the Colombian Peso
With May inflation coming in below forecasts, we see a clear signal that the Banco de la República has more room to cut interest rates. This dovish development means we should anticipate a more aggressive easing cycle than previously priced by the market. The central bank’s next meeting at the end of July now becomes a critical event.
Our primary focus should be on the USD/COP currency pair, as the prospect of lower rates will likely weaken the peso. We are looking at buying call options on USD/COP with expiration dates in late July and August, targeting a move towards the 4,350 level. Recent data from the CME shows a notable increase in open interest for such options, suggesting this view is gaining traction.
In the interest rate swap market, we should be positioning to receive the fixed rate on IBR swaps, betting that the overnight lending rate will fall. The swaps curve is already pricing in an additional 25 basis points of cuts for 2026, bringing the total expected easing to 100 basis points. We believe the final number could be closer to 150 basis points if this disinflationary trend continues.
Economic Backdrop and Historical Precedent
This single inflation reading reinforces a broader trend of slowing economic activity. First-quarter GDP growth for 2026 was a sluggish 1.1%, and recent manufacturing PMI data registered at 49.5, indicating a contraction. This combination of weak growth and falling inflation gives the central bank a dual mandate to act.
Historically, the Colombian peso has shown significant sensitivity to shifts in monetary policy expectations. During the 2017-2018 easing cycle, the USD/COP pair rallied over 15% as the central bank cut its policy rate by 300 basis points. We anticipate a similar, though perhaps less pronounced, pattern to unfold in the second half of this year.
Given the increased certainty of rate cuts, implied volatility on peso options is likely to rise ahead of the next few policy meetings. We should act within the next one to two weeks to structure these positions before the cost of options increases significantly. This strategy allows us to capitalize on the expected directional move while managing our downside risk.
