In October, Colombia’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 0.18% compared to the previous month, which is higher than the predicted 0.13% increase. This data reflects a wider global economic landscape where inflation, exchange rates, and employment figures are crucially observed.

Global Economic Highlights

New Zealand’s inflation expectations for the fourth quarter of 2025 have reached 2.28%, an increase from last quarter. The Australian Dollar has fallen, despite a rise in Westpac Consumer Confidence. In China, the People’s Bank of China set the USD/CNY reference rate at 7.0866, slightly up from the previous 7.0856. Japan is facing rising prices due to increased import costs linked to a weak yen. Other currencies, like GBP/USD, remain around 1.32 as UK labor data approaches. Gold prices increased to nearly $4,120, driven by expectations of US rate cuts and fluctuations in the US Dollar. Furthermore, Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Ripple have all seen price rises, suggesting a recovery as bearish trends fade. Coinbase is launching a new platform for cryptocurrency, allowing users to buy digital tokens before their exchange listings. With the US Federal Reserve’s December meeting approaching, expectations for a rate cut are strengthening, especially after last week’s US jobs report showed the slowest wage growth since 2023. This is keeping gold prices steady above $4,100 an ounce. We should consider holding long positions in gold futures or buying call options to benefit from the ongoing weakness of the US Dollar. The drop of WTI crude oil below $60 is a strong indicator of decreasing global demand. This aligns with recent manufacturing PMI data from China, showing a return to contraction. The weakness in oil, along with a strong dollar, suggests that put options on WTI or commodity currencies like the Canadian dollar could be effective strategies. We expect this trend to continue as the year ends.

Currency and Commodity Strategy

We should closely observe the difference between the British pound and the euro. The pound remains strong near 1.32 ahead of UK labor data, reflecting a UK economy that has performed better than expected in 2025. In contrast, the euro struggles at 1.1560, making long GBP/short EUR positions via futures contracts or options spreads an attractive trade. The Australian dollar continues to weaken, indicating that global risks outweigh positive domestic news. This decline is worsened by iron ore prices, which have dropped nearly 10% in the past month. Given this situation, any strength in the Aussie should be seen as a chance to enter new short positions or buy AUD/USD put options. In emerging markets, the unexpected rise in Colombian inflation to 0.18% will keep the central bank alert, a trend of cautiousness we’ve noted from them throughout 2025. This could support the Colombian peso against other currencies. Therefore, shorting USD/COP positions may be a smart tactical move, especially if the broader US dollar rally starts to weaken. Lastly, while tech stocks continue to rally due to AI, concerns about a potential bubble are intensifying. Implied volatility in the Nasdaq 100 has dropped to multi-year lows, suggesting market complacency. Buying VIX calls or far out-of-the-money put options on major tech indices could be an inexpensive strategy to hedge against sudden changes in market sentiment. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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