Commerzbank analyst predicts oil market oversupply will worsen until early 2026.

    by VT Markets
    /
    Oct 10, 2025
    The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) says the oil market has too much supply right now. They expect this surplus to grow until early 2026. Even though eight major oil-producing countries probably won’t produce much more oil, Russia increased its output by nearly 200,000 barrels per day in September. However, it is still under its limit of 9.4 million barrels daily. In July, the US set a new production record of 13.6 million barrels per day. Predictions for US production have been revised upwards. By 2026, the US is expected to average 13.5 million barrels per day, which is 200,000 barrels higher than previous forecasts. Other market observations include potential shifts in Canadian unemployment rates and expectations for currency performance, along with various analyses of economic indicators that may affect global markets.

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    Market Trends And Strategies

    Recent market data supports this view. The latest EIA report revealed an unexpected increase in US crude inventories of 3.1 million barrels, while a slight drop in China’s manufacturing data for September suggests weakening demand from the biggest oil buyer. We’ve seen this pattern before, like during the oversupply from 2014 to 2016, which caused prices to fall. In the coming weeks, traders might consider buying put options to profit from a price drop or using bear call spreads if prices remain steady or decline. With WTI struggling to stay above $75 a barrel, these strategies could take advantage of the current supply-heavy situation. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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