Russia’s top Palladium producer expects a Platinum supply shortage in 2025, while Palladium supply will be stable. They predict a Platinum deficit of 300,000 ounces this year, not counting investment demand. If we include investments, the deficit may reach 400,000 ounces. For Palladium, the market should remain balanced without including investment demand, but it could show a 200,000-ounce deficit if demand from investors is factored in. Next year, they foresee a similar situation for Platinum and a 100,000-ounce deficit for Palladium. This contradicts findings from the World Platinum Investment Council (WPIC) published last November.

Platinum Market Predictions

The WPIC expects the Platinum market to be nearly balanced next year when considering investment demand. Without this demand, they believe there could be an excess of about 380,000 ounces, which would not lead to higher prices. FXStreet Insights Team gathers views from leading experts, including insights from various analysts. They reflect different opinions on future supply and demand in the market. Currently, there is a notable disagreement regarding the Platinum market’s future. A major Russian producer predicts a 400,000-ounce deficit for 2025, while the WPIC’s forecast suggests a nearly balanced market. This inconsistency between a significant producer and a research council can cause market volatility and trading chances. Recent data supports the idea of a Platinum deficit, making a bullish outlook more believable. Last week, global auto sales for November 2025 showed an unexpected 4.5% year-over-year growth, fueled by strong demand for hybrid vehicles. These vehicles heavily utilize platinum in their catalytic converters, indicating stronger industrial demand than the WPIC anticipated.

Investment Strategies for Platinum and Palladium

On the supply side, there have been ongoing reports of energy shortages in South Africa during the final quarter of 2025. These shortages, which also affected production in 2022 and 2023, have historically limited mining output and strengthen the case for a tighter market. This supports the producer’s prediction of a deficit in the coming weeks. For derivative traders, this could mean taking long positions in Platinum as we enter the new year. Buying call options on Platinum futures may help capitalize on any potential price increases while controlling risks. Platinum prices have risen 7% since early November 2025, indicating growing positive sentiment. In contrast, the outlook for Palladium is more balanced, with projected deficits of only 100,000 to 200,000 ounces, which isn’t likely to trigger a major price shift. Therefore, strategies such as selling options to earn premiums might be better suited for Palladium in the short term. Given these differing outlooks, a pairs trade could be a smart move in the coming weeks. Taking a long position in Platinum while shorting Palladium may allow us to benefit from Platinum’s potentially stronger fundamentals compared to Palladium, regardless of the overall direction of precious metal prices. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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