Commerzbank says the euro area’s flash inflation reading for May is unlikely to shift the currency market because much of the information is often pre-released through national data. With the calendar otherwise thin, the release may draw attention, but the scope for deviation from consensus is seen as constrained and the effect on EUR/USD is expected to be modest.
The bank points to a marked contrast with the 2022–2023 inflation shock, when data surprises were larger and more capable of moving interest-rate expectations. Recent months, by comparison, have generally tracked forecasts despite the energy price shock, which limits repricing in rates markets. In that context, it expects the main driver to sit outside the data print, with market focus remaining on negotiations linked to the Strait of Hormuz.
Modest Market Impact from Euro Area Inflation Data
On a day like today, June 2nd, with little other economic data, the focus is on the May inflation figures for the Euro area. However, we maintain that there is little potential for major surprises in the foreign exchange market. Many national economies have already released their figures, anchoring the market’s expectations.
The latest flash estimate from Eurostat showed inflation at 2.1%, only slightly missing the 2.2% consensus forecast. This continues a trend of small deviations, which is a stark contrast to the large inflation shocks of 2022 and 2023. As long as we do not see more pronounced surprises, the effect on interest rate expectations and the euro will remain limited.
We see this reflected in the options market, where one-month implied volatility for EUR/USD has fallen to 5.8%, near its lowest levels in two years. This suggests traders are not pricing in significant moves around scheduled European data releases. Consequently, strategies involving selling short-term volatility on EUR/USD may be attractive.
Heightened Geopolitical Risk and Market Strategies
The primary driver for the currency has instead shifted to geopolitical risk, particularly surrounding the Strait of Hormuz. With recent naval drills and stalled negotiations pushing Brent crude prices back over $95 a barrel, any headline from the region is a greater risk to stability. This is where the real potential for a market shock lies in the coming weeks.
Given this, we should focus less on predictable inflation data and more on hedging against a sudden flare-up in Middle East tensions. This could involve buying longer-dated call options on oil or using options to protect against a sudden risk-off move in global markets. The euro’s direction is more likely to be decided by events in the Persian Gulf than by data from Brussels.
