Commerzbank sees the New Zealand dollar facing continued headwinds as the Iran conflict, higher energy prices and renewed inflation pressures undermine a fragile upswing, while domestic growth remains anaemic. Markets are pricing three RBNZ rate hikes and one by the Fed by year-end, but the bank expects each central bank to deliver one fewer hike, leaving the current NZD level broadly consistent with that interest-rate gap and only mild additional downward pressure near term.
Looking further out, Commerzbank expects two RBNZ hikes to anchor inflation expectations, rather than the three implied by pricing, which it says caps NZD upside. It forecasts NZD/USD drifting towards 0.55 by late 2027, while projecting EUR/NZD to rise to 2.20. The bank also expects the Fed to cut rates next year, though it anticipates US growth will support the dollar; combined with persistent inflation and weak New Zealand growth, this outlook is expected to keep policy from returning to neutral and to weigh on the kiwi into 2027.
New Zealand’s Weak Growth and Policy Outlook
We see the New Zealand Dollar facing continued downward pressure due to its sluggish economy. New Zealand’s GDP growth for the first quarter of 2026 came in at just 0.2%, confirming our view of a lagging economy that cannot support a more aggressive central bank. The market is pricing in three rate hikes this year, but we only expect two from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
This outlook for New Zealand is a sharp contrast to the United States, where growth remains robust. The latest U.S. non-farm payrolls data for May 2026 showed the addition of 215,000 jobs, beating expectations and signaling continued economic strength. This dynamic should keep the US dollar supported even as the Fed plans for rate cuts next year.
Trading Strategies and External Headwinds
Given this divergence, we believe derivative traders should consider buying NZD/USD put options. These positions would profit from the Kiwi’s expected slide against the stronger US dollar. We are targeting contracts with expirations in the next three to six months to capitalize on the market repricing its rate hike expectations.
We also see significant weakness for the Kiwi against the Euro. Recent commentary from the European Central Bank has been unexpectedly hawkish, creating a policy divergence that favors the Euro. This reinforces the case for a weaker New Zealand dollar on multiple fronts.
For traders looking at cross-rates, establishing long positions in EUR/NZD futures or call options appears attractive. The pair is currently trading near 2.05, and we see a path toward our long-term target of 2.20. The ongoing weak growth in New Zealand will be the primary driver for this move.
Global headwinds, such as the ongoing conflict in Iran, are also weighing on the Kiwi. These tensions have helped push Brent crude oil above $95 per barrel this month. As a net energy importer, New Zealand’s economy is particularly vulnerable to higher energy prices, which further dampens its growth prospects.
