Commerzbank said the delayed January US jobs report is unlikely to cause big moves in the US Dollar. Nonfarm Payrolls are expected to be around 70,000, and the unemployment rate is forecast to hold at 4.4%.
The bank said even a result near 60,000 would still match a clear trend: the labour market is weakening, but not collapsing. In its view, that would not justify major changes to interest-rate expectations based on the Federal Reserve’s employment mandate.
Dollar Risks Beyond The Jobs Report
The bank said key data releases can still move the Dollar in the short term. However, it said the main medium-term risk is uncertainty about future Federal Reserve policy under Kevin Warsh, and worries about the Fed’s independence.
It said the situation around Fed independence may not be clear until spring. The article noted it was produced with help from an artificial intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.
The next US labour market report is not expected to trigger major Dollar moves. Even a Nonfarm Payrolls result around 70,000—similar to the latest January 2026 release, which printed a modest 85,000—would simply confirm an ongoing slowdown in hiring. That would be unlikely to change the Federal Reserve’s interest-rate path in a meaningful way.
The bigger issue for the US Dollar is political uncertainty. In 2025, debates about the Fed’s future and its independence created sharp market swings. Those concerns have not gone away and remain the biggest medium-term risk for the Dollar.
Positioning For Later Spring Volatility
For traders, this means short-term swings around data releases can be misleading. With the VIX currently subdued near 15, it may be worth considering longer-dated options to hedge against a sudden rise in currency volatility later this spring. This is less about betting on the next jobs number and more about insuring against unresolved political risks.
Important data will still drive short-term Dollar moves, but these are secondary. The core risk is still the Fed’s independence, which continues to hang over the greenback. Markets may get more clarity over the next few months, making political headlines almost as important as economic data.
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