Russia’s central bank cut its key rate by 50 basis points. It also raised its end-2026 inflation forecast by 0.5 percentage points because of a VAT increase. The bank also said it expects to keep cutting rates at future meetings. The forecast for the average key rate in 2027 was raised to 8.0–9.0%, from 7.5–8.5%. This is still below today’s rate, so more cuts are still expected.

Key Rate Cut Signals Easing Bias

The bank lowered its 2026 oil export price assumption to $45 per barrel, down $10 from the October projection. It also cut its projected current account surplus for 2026 to $10bn, from $27bn. The bank said monetary policy could matter more for the rouble if trade flows weaken, especially energy exports. It kept its view that USD/RUB could move back towards 100.0 over the coming quarters. The article says it was produced with help from an AI tool and reviewed by an editor. Russia’s central bank has cut its key interest rate by 50 basis points to 15.5%, even though January inflation was still high at 7.1% year over year. This signals a clear push toward easier policy, which often puts pressure on a currency. We see this as the start of a longer easing cycle.

Trading Implications For Usd Rub

The bank’s own forecasts support this view. It expects the average policy rate to fall to 8.0–9.0% by 2027. That points to more rate cuts over the next year. For FX traders, a wider rate gap versus the US dollar makes the rouble less attractive to hold. Pressure is also rising from the oil outlook. The official 2026 average oil price forecast was cut to $45 per barrel. With Brent near $58, the bank is effectively pricing in a sharp drop in a key revenue source. A weaker oil outlook would likely hurt government finances. As a result, the projected 2026 current account surplus is now only $10bn, much lower than recent levels. For context, the surplus was close to $15bn in Q4 2025 alone. Fewer foreign-currency inflows is a basic argument for a weaker rouble. With lower rates and a weaker trade picture, we expect USD/RUB to trend higher from around 92.50. Our target is still a move back toward 100.00 over the coming quarters. Derivative traders may want to position for rouble weakness. One approach is to buy USD/RUB call options with expiries three to six months out. This offers upside exposure while limiting the maximum loss to the option premium. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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