Portugal’s consumer confidence index improved slightly, rising from -15.9 to -15.2 in November. This change comes amid various movements in financial markets worldwide. In the foreign exchange market, the EUR/USD pair stabilized after gaining over the week, trading just below 1.1600. The GBP/USD pair dipped under 1.3250 after significant gains in previous days.

Gold Prices Steady Against Dollar Movements

Gold prices remained steady above $4,150, reflecting stability despite changes in the US Dollar. Even with mixed data from the US, market players expect a possible Federal Reserve rate cut in December. Cardano saw a modest recovery of nearly 7%, trading around $0.43. Analysts believe this rebound is partly due to increased whale activity and buying strength. Markets generally climbed during the US Thanksgiving period, although trading volumes were lower. This seasonal boost led to the best four-day performance for the S&P, Nasdaq, and Dow since May, though some believe this rise is due to thin trading conditions. We’re experiencing a typical holiday rally in the markets, largely driven by expectations of a dovish Fed. However, a rally on thin liquidity can be misleading, as seen in November 2023 just before a rough finish to that year. It’s important to be cautious about pursuing extended gains during this time.

Market Consensus On Fed Rate Cut

Most of the market believes a Federal Reserve rate cut will happen in December. The derivatives market now indicates an over 85% chance of a 25-basis-point cut, a level of confidence not seen since late 2023 during previous discussions about a pivot. Even with last week’s US jobless claims falling below 210,000, the market is focusing only on expectations of looser policy. The weak dollar has pushed the EUR/USD pair above 1.1600, although it’s having difficulty maintaining those gains. The slight rise in Portuguese consumer confidence to -15.2, while small, marks a slow recovery from the significant pessimism seen in 2023. With the euro stabilizing, buying short-dated call options may be a good way to take advantage of further potential gains while managing risk. Gold’s strong position above $4,150 shows that traders are betting on lower interest rates. As long as the market believes the Fed will cut rates, any dips in gold prices could be seen as buying opportunities. Expect increased volatility as we get closer to the December FOMC announcement. We’re also noticing a revival in more speculative assets, with on-chain data for Cardano hinting at a possible recovery toward the $0.50 mark. This indicates that some traders are willing to take on more risk, betting that a Fed pivot will uplift all assets. However, these movements are fragile and depend heavily on maintaining positive overall market sentiment. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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