West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil is trading at $59.25 during the Asian session, dipping as a result of increased demand for the US Dollar. The price of WTI is under pressure due to geopolitical tensions and OPEC’s choice to keep output levels steady until early 2026. WTI is nearing a support level of $59.24, with some resistance at $60.80. Ongoing attacks in Ukraine have disrupted operations in Novorossiysk, and OPEC+ has paused its efforts to regain market share due to concerns about supply.

Technical Analysis

On the daily chart, WTI remains below the 100-day EMA at $61.55, indicating a bearish trend. It is stabilizing around the 20-day average at $59.24, and tighter Bollinger Bands suggest reduced volatility. The RSI is at 49.10, reflecting a neutral outlook with possibilities for either direction. WTI is trading within a defined range, with resistance between $60.80 and $61.55, and support levels from $59.24 to $57.69. Staying above the midpoint maintains interest, while a drop below could lead to further declines. WTI prices are influenced by global factors such as supply and demand, political events, and the strength of the US Dollar. Weekly inventory reports from the API and EIA shed light on oil supply and demand dynamics, impacting prices as well. Currently, WTI crude oil is around $59.25, showing a bearish sentiment as it remains under key moving averages. The market is characterized by low volatility and consolidation, suggesting a potential price movement may be coming. Traders should prepare for a possible breakout from the narrow range between $57.69 support and $60.80 resistance.

Macro and Geopolitical Overview

The strengthening US Dollar adds downward pressure, with the Dollar Index (DXY) hitting a multi-month high of 106.5, making oil more costly for foreign buyers. Additionally, the EIA report from November 26, 2025, revealed a surprising increase in crude inventories by 1.8 million barrels, indicating weaker-than-expected demand. These factors are the main drivers behind the current bearish outlook. In the broader economic context, recent data from Europe and China shows slowing industrial activity, which lowers expectations for global energy demand as we approach 2026. Notably, China’s Caixin Manufacturing PMI came in at 49.9, showing slight contraction and raising concerns. This is a shift from the more positive growth predictions we held earlier in 2025. Nonetheless, we believe the potential for declines is limited by ongoing geopolitical tensions and OPEC+ discipline. Attacks on Russian energy facilities highlight supply risks, creating a price floor. OPEC’s decision in November 2025 to continue production cuts into the first quarter of 2026 shows their commitment to preventing another price collapse like the one seen in late 2023. Given this scenario, a smart strategy for the upcoming weeks would involve preparing for increased volatility. Selling out-of-the-money call options with strike prices above the $61.55 resistance could take advantage of the current price stability. Alternatively, traders might use the upcoming API inventory report as a trigger, aiming to buy put options if WTI closes significantly below the $59.24 midline support. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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