Crude oil futures finished at $65.29, an increase of $0.71 or 1.10%. During the session, prices peaked at $65.39 and dipped to a low of $64.22, showing improved market sentiment. On the daily chart, the price movement was significant as it climbed above the 50% retracement level of $64.71. Since April, oil had been closing below this level. Regaining this position suggests a short-term rise might happen.

Next Potential Resistance

The next resistance level is the 100-day moving average at $66.28, which hasn’t been surpassed since April 2nd. If it breaks through this point, further gains could follow. If prices drop below the $64.71 support, it may mean the breakout didn’t hold, leading to increased selling. Should this support fail, attention will shift to swing lows between $64.14 and $63.57, which would be the next targets. We’ve noticed a sharp shift in crude sentiment, with futures rising above the important level at $64.71. This is a clearer technical sign: it indicates that the bears, who’ve held sway since April, are losing their dominance—at least for now. The price not only crossed that marker but closed above it, which is significant since we haven’t seen a close above it in weeks. This shows renewed strength. More importantly, this move came close to the 100-day moving average at $66.28. This isn’t just any threshold; it’s been untouched since early April and is closely monitored by traders. If prices rally above this level and stay there for multiple days, we could see moves into higher congestion zones from March. Historically, past levels are still influential.

Stability Concerns

However, maintaining prices above $64.71 isn’t guaranteed. It’s acting as a critical pivot point. We’ll watch this closely in the next two to three sessions. If prices fall back below it, especially with rising volume, it strongly suggests that the upside attempt has failed. This could lead to further selling, targeting the levels of $64.14 and then $63.57—the last important swing lows. Because these levels held previously, they might provide some support, but only if buyers aren’t completely shaken off. Momentum appears limited. We haven’t seen strong price movements or a surge in open interest yet. Thus, we need further confirmation before making any decisions. It’s not the right time to force a specific direction. Instead, we prepare for potential moves in either direction: adopting a slightly bullish stance while prices remain above the retracement level, but being ready to change if nearby support levels break. Going forward, we’ll manage our exposure gradually. If we stay above $64.71 into Wednesday, longer-term strategies might start increasing positions, with tight stops set under $64. Support failures would lead to trimming or reversing shorter positions, especially if volume rises on the downside. Each move needs to be guided not just by price, but by the overall market reaction around these critical levels. Be aware that volatility remains quiet, which can often precede sudden price changes. Historically, crude oil rarely stays still for long when approaching a moving average it hasn’t broken in months. Our approach should be tactical, not thematic—avoid large bets and instead make measured trades based on price consistency and intraday conviction. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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