Crude oil futures closed at $68.45, which is a rise of $1.88 or 2.82%. Over the week, prices went up by $2.13, marking a 3.2% increase. This happened even with an unexpected boost in OPEC+ production of 548,000 barrels at the start of the week. Midweek, OPEC+ discussed pausing any future output increases, taking a more cautious approach. The EIA reported a surprising increase of 7 million barrels in U.S. crude inventories, which usually would lower prices. However, declines in gasoline and distillate stocks helped stabilize the market. Additionally, sanctions on Russia contributed to increasing prices, and former President Trump’s upcoming statement on Monday added to the market’s anticipation. On a technical level, oil prices climbed above the 200-day moving average of $68.35. During the last three sessions, crude traded above this line during the day but didn’t finish above it until today. The market closed near its highs, setting up oil to end the week well above the 200-day MA, suggesting a positive trend for next week. This article highlights the recent rise in crude oil futures, which finished the week at $68.45 per barrel, climbing nearly $2 for the day and just over $2 for the week. This price rise is notable because it defied expectations after OPEC+ increased production by 548,000 barrels, which would typically push prices down. However, midweek discussions hinted at slowing future production increases, easing concerns about oversupply. At the same time, U.S. inventory data was surprising. The EIA reported a sharp increase of 7 million barrels in crude stocks, usually a bearish sign. Yet, declines in gasoline and distillate inventories shifted market focus and softened this impact. Sanctions on Russia also added support to the pricing, while the market anticipated comments from Trump on Monday, boosting sentiment further. A key indicator was that the price closed above the critical 200-day moving average, previously at $68.35. Although oil prices stayed above this line during earlier sessions, they only closed above it for the first time today. This finish stands out, especially since it’s near the session high, and it suggests a stronger outlook moving forward. For those tracking derivatives, closing above a long-term moving average often attracts trend-following buyers. Monday may see follow-through buying now that this barrier has been cleared. Typically, prices above this average draw in more determined trading. With the strong finish and recent resistance to usually bearish data and unexpected supply increases, market sentiment has turned bullish. We can expect more activity focused on call options with near-term expiries, particularly if the market opens at or above Friday’s close. We should avoid betting against this strength early in the week, especially during European trading hours, and look for momentum trades based on this sustained close above $68.35. If prices stabilize above the moving average, volatility might decrease. Last week’s behavior indicates that new highs may face less resistance than before. Instead of expecting large corrections, it makes sense to target options slightly above recent highs. Timing exits around inventory data may lose effectiveness, so it’s better to pay attention to technical patterns and reactions to major news like sanctions or policy discussions.

here to set up a live account on VT Markets now