Crude oil futures increase by $1.04 to $66.23, with August contracts up 1.75%

    by VT Markets
    /
    Jul 17, 2025
    September crude oil futures rose by $1.04, ending at $66.23. Today’s highest price reached $66.27, while the lowest was $65.02. In August, the contract price increased by $1.16, or 1.75%, closing at $67.54.

    Market Sentiment Shift

    The recent rise in crude oil futures indicates a need to focus on essential supply and demand factors. Although the daily gains are small, they suggest a shift in market sentiment that we believe is supported by real data. This isn’t random; it’s a response to several important issues. Recent inventory reports are especially significant. The U.S. Energy Information Administration announced a crude inventory drop of 2.5 million barrels, exceeding analysts’ expectations. This tightening supply in the world’s biggest consumer is a strong bullish signal for the near future. Globally, OPEC+ has chosen to extend its voluntary production cuts of 2.2 million barrels per day through the third quarter, creating a solid price floor. Historically, when OPEC+ has shown similar discipline, like after the 2020 price crash, it has helped stabilize the market. This will likely reduce downside risks in the upcoming weeks.

    Geopolitical Tensions and Potential Upside

    We’re also seeing strong seasonal demand as the summer driving season begins in the Northern Hemisphere. U.S. gasoline demand recently neared 9.3 million barrels per day, marking a peak for this year and indicating increased consumption. This trend will likely draw down crude stockpiles and support prices. The ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East are another major factor to watch. Any escalation involving key oil-producing countries or shipping routes could lead to rapid price spikes, similar to past incidents that added significant risks to oil prices. Traders need to be prepared for sudden changes driven by news. Given these conditions, we suggest that traders consider positioning for short-term price increases. The decrease in U.S. inventories, ongoing international production discipline, and rising seasonal demand create a strong case for higher prices. Bullish strategies, like buying call options, look promising in this situation. However, we should keep in mind that international producers plan to start unwinding their cuts in the fourth quarter. This indicates that the current price strength might only last a few months. A smart strategy would be to employ tactics that can benefit from rising prices while also managing risk effectively. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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