Crude oil prices are holding steady as traders await new developments that could lead to changes. The market has been quiet since the Israel-Iran conflict ended, with little new information to consider. Trade tariffs seem to have peaked, with future changes expected to stay between 10% and 20%. The effects of OPEC+ supply increases have diminished since the market has already adjusted. Key economic data and Federal Reserve actions could affect asset prices for the rest of the year, likely supporting growth and inflation.

Technical Analysis

On the daily chart, crude oil prices are bouncing around a support level at $64.00. Buyers are aiming to push prices toward the $72.00 resistance, while sellers are looking for a dip below support to target $55.00. In the 4-hour chart, prices are moving between the $64.00 support and $69.00 resistance, indicating ongoing range trading until a breakout occurs. The 1-hour chart shows erratic price movements typical of range-bound markets, so traders should focus on managing risk at these key levels. Upcoming events include several U.S. economic indicators: Job Openings and Consumer Confidence today, followed by GDP, FOMC decisions, and others throughout the week, culminating with the U.S. NFP report and ISM Manufacturing PMI on Friday. The crude oil market is currently quiet, providing specific opportunities for derivative traders in the weeks ahead. Prices are stuck between strong support at $64 and resistance near $69. This tight range suggests strategies involving these boundaries or waiting for a breakout. This sideways price action is supported by recent fundamental data. For example, the latest EIA report indicated an unexpected rise in crude inventory of 1.4 million barrels last week, showing that supply currently meets demand. This keeps sellers active at the top of the range and reduces bullish sentiment.

Options Trading Strategy

For options traders, this low-volatility environment is ideal for premium-selling strategies like iron condors or short strangles. By setting strike prices outside the $64-$69 range, we can take advantage of time decay while the market waits for a new driver. This method helps generate income while managing risk until a clearer trend surfaces. This week, the main catalyst will be economic data, especially the FOMC rate decision on Wednesday, July 30th. Fed funds futures currently indicate an 80% chance of a rate cut, which could weaken the dollar and push oil prices toward the $72 resistance. However, any deviation from this expectation could easily drop prices to test the $64 support. Looking ahead, it’s important to remember that conditions can change quickly, as seen with late 2023 supply disruptions. Although the scheduled OPEC+ supply increases for this quarter seem fully anticipated, any change in stance from the cartel or new geopolitical tensions could quickly shift the market. Therefore, we will continue to use options to define our risk in any directional trades. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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