Crude oil prices quickly fell after Iran’s response, which the market saw as mostly symbolic. This led to a rapid sell-off, driven by ongoing hopes for de-escalation. Currently, the focus is on global growth prospects, boosted by expected Federal Reserve rate cuts and improved trade relations. These factors could increase demand for oil. Oil prices may fluctuate between 60 and 90, with a chance for upward movement. On the daily chart, a drop below 72.00 intensified selling and targeted the 65.00 support level. At the 65.00 support, buying interest returned, hinting at a potential rally toward 80.00. If prices drop below 65.00, they could decline to 55.00. The 1-hour chart shows that bearish momentum is slowing at this support zone. Here, sellers might reduce their positions, allowing buyers to enter the market. Stability around this level could follow recent volatility, making it crucial for market participants. What we’ve observed is a quick unwind of risk premiums that had been priced in due to regional tensions. The recent action from Tehran, seen as mostly rhetorical, seems to have eased short-term fears, allowing the crude market to recover sharply. This shift reflects a responsive trading stance, aligning with a broader sentiment toward lower geopolitical risks in the near term. With that narrative settling for now, attention has shifted back to demand dynamics. Lynch’s earlier insights on macro factors help establish a baseline: monetary easing and warmer diplomatic ties among key economies suggest a more positive outlook for global activity. This will likely boost commodity markets through improved consumption forecasts, especially for energy-importing countries, which could support oil buying in Q2. From our analysis of price action, the current range is well-defined. There’s strong memory at the broader bands previously identified. Recently, a rejection below 72 faced heavy selling pressure. Once support failed, the market quickly tested the next key level around 65. At 65, the order flow changed character. High volume responses and a noticeable reduction in selling pressure suggested that active liquidation was slowing. Intraday candles, particularly around the European open, showed elongated wicks to the downside, indicating that sellers weren’t achieving the extension they wanted. These types of reactions often signal a shift toward tighter balance zones. From a strategy perspective, levels around this floor may offer setups worth exploring, but it’s crucial to stick closely to risk controls. If softness persists above this level without more liquidation, short-term mean reversions could become tempting. Looking at hourly patterns, the slope of the RSI and volume-weighted averages are no longer correlating with strong downward momentum, which typically opens up opportunities for tactical long positions, as long as execution aligns with support levels. However, if this level fails—defined as two daily closes significantly below 65—then 59–55 becomes the next target zone, both structurally and psychologically. At that point, models should be recalibrated for possible volatility increases, especially with options positioning already leaning short gamma for the next expiry cycle. In our view, the sharp drop has likely shaken out many quick-money flows, but larger players seem to be absorbing at logical areas. This doesn’t mean a new uptrend has started, but it suggests that reaction lows are forming cautiously. As always, confirmation won’t come from isolated movements but from continuity across sessions. Watching how open interest flows align with spot prices will be a reliable indicator next week.

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