The US Energy Information Administration reported a drop in crude oil stocks on June 13. The actual decline was 11.473 million barrels, much larger than the expected 2.3 million barrels. The AUD/USD rose above 0.6500 after an earlier dip, despite the strength of the US dollar. Attention is now on the upcoming Australian jobs report.

US Dollar and the EURUSD Pair

The EUR/USD pair remained steady below 1.1500 after the Federal Reserve decided to keep interest rates unchanged. Comments from President Trump boosted the US Dollar, hindering the Euro’s progress. Gold prices fell below $3,400 per troy ounce in reaction to the Federal Reserve’s hawkish stance, influenced by Chair Powell’s comments after the meeting. Australia is expecting its employment report, which is predicted to show 25,000 new jobs created, with the unemployment rate staying at 4.1%. In the Eurozone, the European Central Bank continues to focus on monetary aggregates, emphasizing the ongoing importance of quantitative theories.

Crude Oil Inventories and Market Reactions

The unexpected drop in US crude inventories—more than five times what surveys predicted—surprised many and shifted expectations toward tighter supply in the short term. This situation often boosts bullish sentiment in energy-related assets, although long-term positions depend on demand signals and output changes from major producers. This scenario challenges pairs sensitive to energy prices, often disrupting value expectations when paired with rate changes. With the Australian dollar bouncing back above 0.6500 despite broad support for the US dollar, domestic data is now in focus. A strong employment report could enhance positive yield differentials and further support the currency. Positive job growth and steady unemployment could drive the exchange rate higher, especially if wage growth or participation rates indicate underlying strength. We need to pay attention not just to the overall numbers, but also to the details. Meanwhile, the Euro is stalling just below the 1.1500 level. While this might not seem concerning on its own, the context adds limitations. The Federal Reserve’s decision to hold rates steady does not favor Euro optimists, particularly when Powell’s tone suggests tightening may be on the horizon. With additional verbal support for the US dollar from the White House, the Euro lacks catalysts. The ECB’s focus on monetary aggregates feels abstract compared to the significant impact of US rate policies. Gold has also been reacting strongly, now below the $3,400 per ounce mark. The metal’s decline illustrates its sensitivity to interest rate expectations. Powell’s comments, while not resulting in immediate action, have shifted market risk perceptions. For gold to turn bullish again, yields or inflation sentiments must favor it, but currently, neither seems likely to shift significantly. In Europe, monetary policy still values theoretical approaches, as the central bank emphasizes quantity-based frameworks. This focus on monetary aggregates suggests a long-term strategy for managing inflation, but traders often seek quicker clarity on timing. The ECB’s strategy emphasizes structure over immediate signals, which can limit quick market responses but should not be misinterpreted as inactivity. We need to pay attention to the data points—not just react but connect them with the broader actions of each bank. A big oil draw can change inflation expectations. A weak job report in Australia might seem minor, but when viewed alongside the Reserve Bank’s commentary, it could influence future pricing. The strength of the dollar is not only about rates; it involves narrative and how aggressively others may respond—or choose not to. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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