Silver rebounded on Monday after falling to a year-to-date low in Asian trade. XAG/USD traded near $68.00 after dipping to about $61.01, its weakest level since December 2025.
The move followed a pullback in the US Dollar and Treasury yields after US President Donald Trump delayed planned strikes on Iran’s energy infrastructure. He said strikes on Iranian power plants were postponed for five days, depending on talks.
Iranian officials said no negotiations have taken place with the United States. Iran’s Foreign Ministry said its position on the Strait of Hormuz and conditions to end the war are unchanged, and Tehran has not replied to messages relayed by other countries, according to IRNA.
Technically, silver remains below the 50-day SMA at $86.20 and the 100-day SMA near $73.80, keeping near-term bias bearish. The 200-day SMA is near $57.60 and still slopes higher.
The RSI is near 34 and below 50, while the MACD remains below its signal line in negative territory. Resistance sits near $73.80, then $78.00–$80.00, with $86.20 as a further level.
Support is at $61.01, then $57.60. A break below $57.60 could open a move towards $50.00.
With silver trading well below its 50 and 100-day moving averages, the short-term path of least resistance is clearly downward. We are seeing significant selling pressure, with major silver ETFs reporting net outflows of over 15 million ounces this month alone. For traders, this reinforces the bearish case, making any rally toward the $73.80 level a potential opportunity to initiate new short positions.
Industrial demand, a key pillar for silver, also appears to be softening, adding to the headwinds. Recent data from the Global PV Institute showed a 5% sequential decline in solar panel installations for Q1 2026, marking the first quarterly drop since the energy crisis of 2024. Furthermore, the latest US CPI data for February 2026 cooled slightly, reducing silver’s appeal as an immediate inflation hedge and supporting the US Dollar.
Given the geopolitical situation, we see implied volatility on silver options reaching 12-month highs, with the Cboe Silver ETF Volatility Index (VXSLV) pushing past 45. This makes buying puts with strike prices near the $57.60 support level an attractive strategy to capitalize on both the bearish momentum and heightened uncertainty. The elevated volatility means option premiums are expensive, but the potential for a sharp move lower on any escalation with Iran could yield significant returns.
However, we must remember from the 2025 perspective how markets reacted to the Ukraine conflict in 2022, where initial dips on de-escalation rumors were quickly reversed. The rising 200-day moving average suggests the long-term uptrend is still holding, meaning an outright escalation could trigger a violent short squeeze. Therefore, using bear put spreads could be prudent, as it defines risk while profiting from a move down toward the $57.60 to $61.00 range.
Start trading now – Click here to create your real VT Markets account
