The EURUSD pair has recently paused in its correction near the 200-hour moving average, with sellers in control. Last week, EURUSD reached a high of 1.18266, the highest point since September 2021, but the upward momentum faded, and the pair dropped to a low of 1.1718, falling below the 100-hour moving average. On Friday and earlier today, the price tried to bounce back and test the 100-hour MA, but sellers remained strong. Although the price slipped below the 200-hour MA at 1.1744, the low of 1.1718 from Thursday has held as a short-term support level. The price rebounded toward the 200-hour MA, but sellers again halted the upward movement. As long as the price stays below this level, the downward trend persists. If the 1.1718 level is breached, the price could drop toward the 1.1663–1.1691 area, which has been a point of support and resistance since 2021. Falling below this zone could signal stronger downward momentum. What we’ve observed lately with EURUSD is a classic example of a strong rally losing strength at a technical barrier. The pair peaked at levels last seen in 2021 but has shown a slow pullback since then. The failure to maintain momentum above key short-term moving averages, especially the 100-hour and 200-hour, is significant. Recent attempts to rally, including a brief rise on Friday and another earlier today, were cut short near the 100-hour line, which indicates a lack of buying interest at these levels. Sellers seem firmly in control, creating lower highs, with any bounce facing immediate resistance. The 200-hour line at around 1.1744 effectively caps the price. Price action near this barrier has been consistent, but it shows a downward trend. The failure to close above it keeps short-term momentum negative. With the price below this line, buyers have not been able to regain control. The focus rests on the 1.1718 level, a low from late last week that acted as a temporary support. If this level breaks, the next area of interest is 1.1663 to 1.1691, where the price has reacted multiple times over the past few years. We should watch for repeated patterns and track trading volume as these levels are tested. If the price moves toward the lower band around 1.1663 with strong selling and continued downward days, the pressure could intensify below these support levels. A lack of buyers may lead to wider downside movement. We will keep an eye on any rejection candles or failed bounce attempts just below 1.1718, as these could reinforce a negative bias. There’s been a technical development, rather than just random volatility. The structure over the past two weeks suggests a market losing confidence in further upward movement. Support zones are tight, and attempts to regain lost ground face strong rejection. There’s no erratic movement, only a series of lower highs struggling to push higher. Now is not the time to assume that a rebound will come easily. Instead, keep an eye on where the price is relative to the moving averages and lower reaction zones. The longer the pair remains below 1.1744, the less likely an upward drift seems. Current activity indicates tight support and clear resistance. When one breaks, it could have significant implications.

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