The market is showing a cautious mood as we begin trading in June. There are just 36 days until Trump’s trade deal deadline, and legal disputes over tariffs are still ongoing. The dollar faced some difficulties yesterday, dropping at the start of the month but showing some recovery today. Its situation is still shaky, even as sellers back off. The USD/JPY rate is around 143.00, with earlier lows at 142.36 posing a risk to short-term support. Last week, the inability to hold above 145.00 led to consecutive declines, giving us a brief pause now. The EUR/USD pair has dipped by 0.2% but remains above 1.1400. Similarly, GBP/USD has also fallen 0.2%, staying above 1.3500. The Australian and New Zealand currencies are experiencing bigger losses today. The AUD/USD has fallen by 0.5% to 0.6457, failing to break past the 0.6500 level once again. Focus is shifting to upcoming economic data, with the US jobs report set to be released on Friday and the ECB policy meeting scheduled for Thursday. This summary highlights a period of caution as we move into June. Traders seem to be pulling back ahead of major events, while key currency pairs are staying within familiar ranges. Although there is still pressure, overall volatility is limited for now. Given the current situation, there’s a growing sense of hesitation among key assets. Trump’s deadline, now just over a month away, adds to this uncertainty. Legal issues concerning tariffs are also raising doubts about any near-term policy changes. While there isn’t panic, these factors are influencing trading models used to predict short-term trends. The dollar’s drop on the first day of June highlights ongoing uncertainty. Its slight recovery today shows there isn’t a strong consensus yet. However, broad selling appears to have slowed, indicating cautious adjustments rather than renewed enthusiasm. In USD/JPY, for example, the inability to build on previous gains and the retreat to 143.00 suggest that bullish positions are dwindling. The earlier drop to 142.36 is still a concern from a support standpoint, and additional pressure could break that level, especially with external events still on the horizon. After multiple attempts, the failure to maintain the 145.00 level last week has made it clear that this area is tough to reclaim. This decline is more than just a temporary pause; it reflects a wider range that short-term speculators need to consider. The current stability shouldn’t be seen as something permanent, but rather a quieter period before the major events later in the week. For EUR/USD, the slight 0.2% decline keeps it within its expected trading range. The pair hovers comfortably above 1.1400 but lacks the upward momentum seen previously. Similarly, GBP/USD stays above 1.3500, although recent weakness suggests that momentum is fading. Larger moves may be waiting for a more compelling narrative. The Australian and New Zealand dollars are facing stronger selling pressure. In particular, the AUD/USD’s 0.5% drop to 0.6457 reinforces the barrier at 0.6500, which has held firm through multiple attempts. Each failure makes it harder to break through. Traders frustrated with these failed upside moves may be shifting their strategy downward. This week is busy. With Friday’s US job data expected to attract significant attention and Thursday’s ECB policy decision likely to challenge previous assumptions, the current calm may not last long. Bond markets are already showing signs of nervousness, indicating that pricing models are adjusting. If employment data meets expectations, we might see another adjustment in implied volatility. Meanwhile, the central bank’s strategies will be tested on how much they are willing to adapt to ongoing inflation issues. Depending on their responses—one focusing on job availability and the other on price fluctuations—we could see clearer direction early next week. For now, it’s wise to be patient. Jumping into positions right now may lead to unexpected reactions, especially if the consensus is challenged. We prefer to reduce leverage while waiting for better conditions. The data will guide us.

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