Market Reaction So Far
At the time of writing, gold (XAU/USD) was up 0.49% on the day at $5,358. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) was up 0.40% on the day at $71.60. Given the heightened geopolitical tension from last year, we should expect a significant increase in market volatility. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX), which has been hovering near a relatively low 14 in early 2026, is likely to spike. Traders should consider buying near-term call options on the VIX to profit from this expected rise in market fear. The direct threat to Middle East stability puts upward pressure on crude oil prices. We saw a similar, though more severe, reaction after the 2019 attacks on Saudi Aramco facilities, when Brent crude jumped nearly 20% in a single day. With recent EIA data from February 2026 already showing tighter-than-expected inventories, buying call options on WTI or Brent futures is a direct way to trade the risk of supply disruption. As a traditional safe-haven asset, gold is poised to benefit from this uncertainty. The initial price jump mirrors the rally we observed in early 2020 following the conflict that killed an Iranian general, where gold surged over 3.5% in less than a week. We should anticipate further capital flows into gold, making call options on XAU/USD a prudent move to hedge against escalating conflict. Broader equity markets will likely face downward pressure as investors move away from risk. Buying put options on major indices like the S&P 500 (SPY) or the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) can serve as a hedge for existing portfolios. This strategy protects against a market downturn driven by war fears and rising energy costs.Sector Opportunities
Sector-specific plays will also become important in the coming weeks. The energy sector, tracked by ETFs like XLE, should outperform as oil prices rise, making call options attractive. Conversely, industries sensitive to high fuel costs, such as airlines and transportation, are vulnerable, creating opportunities to buy put options on ETFs like JETS. These derivative positions should be viewed as tactical, likely using options expiring in the next 30 to 60 days to capture the most immediate price movements. We remember from past events that the market’s initial reaction is often the most severe. The key will be to monitor the official US response and de-escalation signals closely. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.
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