The Netherlands’ Consumer Price Index (CPI), not seasonally adjusted, fell to 2.4% year-on-year in January. It was 2.8% in the previous period.
This means annual consumer price growth slowed in January. The change was a drop of 0.4 percentage points.
Eurozone Disinflation Outlook
The fall in Dutch inflation to 2.4% supports the wider disinflation trend across the Eurozone. Along with last week’s weaker-than-expected German industrial production data, it gives the European Central Bank (ECB) more room to consider easing monetary policy. Markets are now pricing in a more than 60% chance of a first rate cut at the June ECB meeting.
To track and trade these expectations, we should watch interest rate futures. Demand for June and September 2026 Euribor futures has already increased, which suggests markets are starting to price in lower rates sooner. This looks similar to what we saw in the second half of 2025, when expectations of an end to the hiking cycle began to build.
These easing expectations could weigh on the euro, especially against the US dollar, because the Federal Reserve may cut rates more slowly. EUR/USD has already slipped below 1.08 this morning on the news, which is an important technical level. We see value in buying near-term EUR/USD put options to position for a possible move toward the 1.06 area seen late last year.
For equities, a more dovish ECB is generally positive, especially for growth stocks and other rate-sensitive sectors.
AEX Positioning Implications
We should consider call options on the AEX index, as Dutch multinationals often benefit from a weaker euro and lower borrowing costs. The index is already up nearly 1% in early trading, led by tech and consumer discretionary stocks.
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