US EIA data for 13 March showed a natural gas storage change of 35B. The forecast was 39B.
The reported change was 4B below forecasts. The figures are 35B actual versus 39B expected.
We remember looking back at the March 13, 2025, report where the natural gas storage withdrawal came in smaller than forecasted. This bearish signal, indicating weaker-than-expected demand, briefly pushed prices lower. The market, however, quickly found its footing as focus shifted to the approaching summer injection season.
Fast forward to today, March 19, 2026, and we face a similar environment of supply abundance. Current working gas in storage is approximately 2,250 Bcf, which is over 25% higher than the five-year average for this time of year. This significant surplus is the main reason front-month futures are struggling to hold above $3.15/MMBtu.
The dynamic we must watch is the battle between record high production and strong export demand. U.S. dry gas production continues to hover near 105 Bcf/d, while LNG feedgas demand consistently pulls more than 14 Bcf/d, creating a solid price floor. This tug-of-war is suppressing volatility, a key factor for option traders.
Given the high inventories capping the upside and strong LNG demand supporting the downside, the market appears range-bound. Traders should consider selling premium through strategies like short strangles or iron condors on the May and June contracts. Selling out-of-the-money puts below the $2.80 support level and calls above the $3.50 resistance could capitalize on this expected lack of a major price move in the coming weeks.
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