Estimates predict declines in China’s retail and industrial output as economic activity data is anticipated.

    by VT Markets
    /
    May 19, 2025
    Federal Reserve Bank of New York President John Williams will speak at Hofstra University. However, no policy changes are expected to come from this speech. It is scheduled for 2120 GMT, which is 1720 US Eastern time. In Asia, everyone is watching China’s economic data for April. Retail sales are likely to drop compared to March. Fixed-asset investment is expected to stay the same, and industrial production is also predicted to decline, based on the April purchasing managers’ index and trade data.

    Asian Economic Calendar

    The Asian economic calendar outlines these expectations along with previous month or quarter results and general consensus estimates. Times are shown in GMT. This information comes from the ForexLive economic calendar, which sheds light on recent trends in the region. Williams’ speech may not change near-term monetary policy, but market participants usually pay close attention to the tone and details for hints on future thinking. His role at the New York Fed gives his comments added importance, even if nothing concrete is announced. When central bank officials speak, especially between scheduled policy decisions, it can provide indications about whether future tightening or easing may happen sooner or later. If he emphasizes inflation risks or labor market weakness, that could affect attitudes towards longer-term yields. Meanwhile, developments in Asia are important to watch this week. The Chinese data mentioned earlier present a concerning outlook. Retail sales are not rebounding as expected following seasonal patterns, indicating weak household demand. Additionally, stagnation in fixed-asset investment suggests that both public and private sectors may hesitate to increase spending due to uncertain returns. Furthermore, weaker industrial output, as shown by recent PMI surveys and trade data, raises doubts about any near-term boost to manufacturing from external demand.

    Economic Momentum Reflection

    These data trends show an economy struggling with a lack of domestic growth. For those trading futures and options tied to regional assets, these developments indicate relative weakness in economic activity, which could affect strategies involving Asian equity indexes or currency volatility, especially with the yuan facing pressure from differing policies. While Williams’ remarks may not shift the market on their own, the broader backdrop of slow economic progress in China reminds us to keep an eye on upcoming inflation reports from both sides of the Pacific. It’s often not the main reports that shape sentiment—revisions and secondary trends can lead to changes in global rates and FX markets, especially when disinflation creates uncertainty around carry trades. This does not mean immediate reversals or major adjustments, but it helps us understand which instruments might be more sensitive to global sentiment. Making clear positioning now is more crucial than usual, especially as economic surprises from China continue to disappoint early-year expectations. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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