EUR/GBP was steady on Friday, with the euro edging ahead after softer UK data reinforced evidence of cooling momentum. The pair traded near 0.8633, above an intraday low of 0.8625. Figures from the Office for National Statistics showed UK GDP fell 0.1% month on month in April, in line with expectations and reversing a 0.3% rise in March. The backdrop complicates the Bank of England outlook as it balances restrictive policy against still-elevated price pressures. In its quarterly survey, the public’s median one-year inflation expectation rose to 4.0% from 3.2% in February.
Markets are fully pricing a hold at next week’s policy meeting. In a Reuters poll run from 5 to 12 June, economists expected the Bank Rate to remain unchanged through year-end, though nearly 40% projected at least one hike; only six anticipated a 25-basis-point cut by then. On the continent, the European Central Bank lifted rates by 25 basis points on Thursday and revised up its inflation projections while trimming growth expectations. Peter Kazimir said the tightening cycle was not yet finished, and argued June inflation “might be decisive” for July. Nomura targets 0.90 in coming months, citing narrowing front-end rate differentials and UK political-fiscal risks.
UK Weakness and Eurozone Divergence
With the UK economy shrinking by 0.1% in April, we see a clear divergence forming against the Eurozone. This slowdown complicates the Bank of England’s path, pinning it between weak growth and persistent inflation. The market is pricing in a hold on interest rates, but the underlying pressure is building.
This economic weakness in the UK is becoming a pattern, with recent purchasing managers’ index (PMI) data for the services sector also showing a slowdown to 52.9, a six-month low. In contrast, the European Central Bank (ECB) just raised rates and signaled more could be coming to combat inflation, which recently ticked up to 2.6% across the bloc. We believe this policy divergence is the key driver for the Euro’s strength against the Pound.
Trading Strategy and ECB Outlook
Given this, we should consider buying EUR/GBP call options to position for a move higher in the coming weeks. This strategy allows us to profit from a rise in the exchange rate while limiting our downside risk to the premium paid. An out-of-the-money strike price, perhaps around 0.8750 with a late July or August expiry, would offer good leverage.
The ECB is sounding far more determined to tackle inflation than the Bank of England, which is constrained by the fragile UK economy. ECB officials are openly stating their mission is not yet complete, making the upcoming Eurozone inflation data a critical catalyst. We expect front-end rate differentials between the UK and the Eurozone to narrow, which historically supports a higher EUR/GBP.
This reinforces the case for a move towards the 0.9000 level over the next few months. We have seen the pair reach this level during previous periods of UK economic uncertainty, such as in 2020 and 2022. We should build a long position in the cross, using options to manage risk ahead of the next central bank meetings.
