The EUR/USD exchange rate is expected to stabilize between 1.1475 and 1.1525. This is due to a slowdown in falling prices and oversold conditions. Analysts from UOB Group foresee more weakness for the Euro in the long run, with 1.1450 being the next key level. In the short term, earlier predictions expected another drop after the Euro hit a low of 1.1472. However, the Euro has traded in a narrow range of 1.1468 to 1.1497, indicating a slowdown in downward movement. This suggests a phase of consolidation is on the horizon.

Euro Short Term Outlook

Over the next one to three weeks, the Euro has maintained a negative trend since late last week. Although it fell to a low of 1.1468 and closed slightly higher, it broke a five-day losing streak. If the Euro stays below 1.1555, it could decline further to the 1.1450 level. These insights are provided by the FXStreet Insights Team, which includes observations from market experts. As of November 6th, 2025, the Euro is showing signs of short-term stabilization after a five-day drop. Traders should be aware of the oversold conditions, suggesting that the pair will likely trade within the tight range of 1.1475 to 1.1525 in the next few sessions. This temporary stability might provide a chance to sell short-dated call options with strikes above 1.1525 to earn premium. However, the overall trend for the Euro remains negative in the coming weeks. Recent data supports this outlook. The U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls for October 2025 came in strong at 215,000, exceeding expectations and indicating a hawkish stance from the Federal Reserve. Meanwhile, the Eurozone’s latest CPI flash estimate showed inflation falling to 2.2%, increasing speculation that the European Central Bank may consider rate cuts early next year. This diverging policy between a strong Fed and a weakening ECB is a key factor driving dollar strength. The current U.S. unemployment rate remains low at 3.7%, reinforcing the case for the Fed to keep interest rates high for an extended period. This fundamental view strengthens our belief that the Euro will weaken further against the dollar.

Trading Strategies and Market Projections

A similar situation occurred during the aggressive rate-hiking cycle of 2023, where policy differences led to significant dollar gains. For traders expecting a decline toward the 1.1450 target, buying put options with a two-to-three-week expiry could be a smart move. The key resistance level at 1.1555 is crucial for validating this bearish outlook. Current low implied volatility during this stabilization period makes longer-dated options more affordable. Traders might consider using put spreads, such as buying a 1.1500 put and selling a 1.1450 put, to limit risk and reduce upfront costs. This strategy allows for a controlled drop without facing unlimited risk if the market turns around. As long as the Euro stays below the strong resistance at 1.1555, the most likely movement is downwards. If this level is breached, it would indicate that the recent downward pressure has eased, requiring an immediate review of any short positions. Therefore, the 1.1555 mark should be used as a key point for stop-loss orders or to unwind bearish derivative structures. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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