The Euro rose against the Japanese Yen on Monday after Japan posted weak GDP figures. EUR/JPY traded near 181.76, up almost 0.20% on the day.
Japan’s GDP grew 0.1% quarter-on-quarter in Q4, below the 0.4% forecast, after -0.7% in the prior quarter. Annualised GDP rose 0.2% versus a 1.6% forecast, improving from -2.6% previously. The GDP deflator eased to 3.4% YoY from 3.5%.
Bank Of Japan Policy Expectations
Focus then shifted to Bank of Japan policy expectations. Slower growth makes near-term tightening less likely. This added pressure to the Yen.
In technical trading, GBP/JPY fell below the 50-day SMA and the 186.50–182.50 range that had held since mid-December. The 50-day SMA is still above the 100-day and 200-day SMAs, and it continues to rise.
Support is near the 100-day SMA at 180.83, then 178.00, and the 200-day SMA near 175.35. Resistance is at the 50-day SMA at 183.66, then 186.00–187.00, with 190.00 above.
MACD is below zero with a negative histogram, and the MACD line is under the Signal line. RSI is near 40, below its midline and not yet oversold.
Key Levels And Options Positioning
We remember the weak Japanese GDP report in early 2025. It reinforced the Bank of Japan’s cautious stance for the year. That weakness helped keep the rate gap with other central banks wide. It also supported the carry trade, which has continued to weigh on the Yen.
As of February 16, 2026, EUR/JPY is around 192.50. The European Central Bank’s main rate is 3.5%, while the Bank of Japan has only lifted its rate to 0.1%. This leaves a large yield advantage for the Euro. This rate difference remains the main driver and makes it costly to bet against the pair.
Over the coming weeks, selling out-of-the-money EUR/JPY puts may be a workable strategy for some traders. It allows traders to collect premium while holding a bullish-to-neutral view. The trade profits if EUR/JPY stays above the strike price or continues to trend higher.
Risks remain, since the pair is near historic highs. A sustained break below the 190.00 psychological level could signal a momentum shift, so it is a key area to watch. Any unexpectedly hawkish comments from the Bank of Japan could also trigger a fast reversal and hurt these positions.
Because the trend has been strong, volatility may stay elevated, which can lift options premiums. Traders who want defined risk could use put credit spreads to limit downside and reduce capital needs. This means selling a higher-strike put and buying a lower-strike put to cap potential losses.
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