Key Resistance Levels
Resistance is near the top of the triangle at about 184.70. A move above this area could open the way towards the record high of 186.88, set on 23 January. Support is first seen at 184.00, then at the nine-day EMA of 183.94. Further levels are the 50-day EMA at 183.46 and the triangle base near 182.90. A break below the triangle could shift the balance lower. This may bring a retest of 180.81, a near four-month low posted on 12 February. We see the current sideways movement in EUR/JPY as a period of consolidation before a larger move. This is supported by the European Central Bank holding rates steady last month after March inflation printed at 2.1%, while the Bank of Japan’s latest meeting minutes revealed continued caution about policy normalization. The ascending triangle pattern points to a potential breakout as these central bank policies continue to diverge.Trading Scenarios And Triggers
For those positioned for an upward move, a sustained break above the 184.70 resistance level is the key trigger for considering long positions, such as buying call options. This would open the path to retest the January 2026 high around 186.88. The Relative Strength Index at 55.36 indicates there is enough buying interest to support such a move without the market being overextended. Conversely, a failure to hold support presents an opportunity for bearish plays, like buying put options. A decisive drop below the triangle’s lower boundary at 182.90 would signal a significant shift in momentum. This could push the pair down toward the February 2026 low of 180.81. Given the tightening price action, we believe an increase in volatility is imminent, making this an interesting setup for options traders. Strategies that profit from a large price move, regardless of direction, could be considered. Looking back at 2025, we saw how similar consolidation patterns preceded sharp moves when the Bank of Japan first signaled its initial policy shifts away from negative rates. Immediate attention should be on the 184.00 psychological level and the nine-day moving average just below it at 183.94. These levels can serve as tight triggers for entry or stop-loss adjustments on short-term derivative positions. The 50-day moving average at 183.46 remains the more significant line of defense for the current mild bullish bias. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.
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